Space Sensing Build-Out
Michael Mignano
@mignano
−1.6%
since Sep 19
The idea
I believe orbit is becoming a militarized layer, with the shift from a few giant satellites to hundreds of cheap ones now underway, so I built this around the tracking and sensing side of that build-out. The core is satellite builders and the infrared sensor payloads every satellite needs, backed by imagery and space-tracking names, ground and data links, and a slice of large defense primes as ballast. I'm holding some cash and treating this as a multi-year bet, roughly 3 to 5 years, matching how long the contract awards and constellation fill-out should take to play through.
What it owns
- The Pentagon is ordering hundreds of small satellites for missile tracking, and these companies build them. · Rocket LabIt builds and launches the cheap, mass-produced satellites the Pentagon is switching to, with existing tracking-layer contracts., L3Harris TechnologiesIt has already won missile-tracking satellite awards from the Space Development Agency and is proven for this exact layer., Northrop GrummanIt builds the Pentagon's new tracking constellation directly, earning as the shift to hundreds of cheap satellites accelerates., Lockheed MartinIt has won batches of new transport and tracking satellites, getting paid under both the old missile-warning model and the new one.28%
- Every tracking satellite needs infrared eyes and processing chips, and these suppliers sell them regardless of which builder wins. · Leonardo DRSIt makes the infrared detectors that let tracking satellites see missile launches, sitting underneath every builder in the constellation., Teledyne TechnologiesIt supplies imaging sensors and detectors across space programs, getting paid by multiple satellite builders instead of one winner., RTX CorporationIt builds missile-warning payloads and seeker technology, tying it to the watching-for-missiles part of this take., CoherentIt supplies the optics and laser links that satellites use to see and talk to each other, a picks-and-shovels way to own the sensor layer., Mercury SystemsIt makes radiation-hardened processing that turns raw sensor data into something useful on the satellite itself.24%
- Satellites need ground stations, communication links, and software to turn raw observations into actionable decisions. · Kratos DefenseIt builds the ground stations and software that control satellites, so more satellites in orbit means more ground gear needed., Palantir TechnologiesIt turns what satellites see into decisions for military users, the software end of the tracking layer., Iridium CommunicationsIt runs a global satellite network the military pays to use, providing a steady cash-generating anchor for the ground-and-data bucket., ViasatIt carries military satellite communications, the links that move what the sensors see to the ground.15%
- Large defense contractors and a broad sector fund win the biggest space contracts either way the constellation builds out. · Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETFIt holds the whole defense sector, so it catches contract winners not picked individually and protects if different companies win., General DynamicsIt builds submarines, vehicles, and IT work, getting paid whichever companies win the satellite orders., HEICOIt sells aerospace parts and defense electronics into nearly every program, a steady compounder independent of any single satellite award.12%
- Companies whose satellites already watch Earth sell imagery and tracking data directly to defense customers today. · Planet LabsIt photographs the whole Earth daily and is selling more imagery to defense customers, the eyes-in-orbit part of this take., BlackSky TechnologyIt sells fast-turnaround satellite imagery almost entirely to defense and intelligence buyers, the purest imagery bet in this basket., Spire GlobalIts satellites track ships, planes, and weather from orbit, selling space-tracking data that matches the tracking half of this take.9%
- Cash12%