Lilly Keeps Winning GLP-1s
Sam Willis@sam_willis
+0.5%
since Oct 16
The idea
I believe GLP-1 drugs keep expanding their reach over the next decade, through pills, broader coverage and newer molecules, with Lilly staying the category leader. Lilly anchors the basket near a quarter of it, with the rest spread across the lab and manufacturing suppliers behind its plant build-out, the makers of pens and injection devices, and the big drug wholesalers that move the volume regardless of price per patient.
What it owns
- As GLP-1 makers build new plants and increase production, they purchase equipment, testing tools, chemicals and supplies from these companies. · Thermo Fisher ScientificIt supplies the equipment, materials and contract manufacturing services that GLP-1 makers use to scale production at new and existing plants., Danaher CorporationIt makes the filtration, purification and production tools used inside GLP-1 manufacturing plants, earning revenue as production capacity expands., Waters CorporationIt makes the analytical instruments labs use to verify purity and potency of peptide drugs like GLP-1s, with every production batch requiring testing., Agilent TechnologiesIt sells lab instruments and supplies used to test and manufacture GLP-1 drugs, so increased production volume drives demand for its analytical equipment., Mettler-Toledo InternationalIt manufactures precision scales and measurement tools found in pharmaceutical labs and manufacturing plants used during GLP-1 production., AvantorIt supplies chemicals, single-use containers and materials that GLP-1 plants consume daily, earning revenue tied to production volume rather than drug prices.29%
- These companies earn a distribution fee on every box shipped to pharmacies, so rising patient volume increases their revenue regardless of drug prices. · McKesson CorporationAs the largest U.S. drug wholesaler, it handles a substantial volume of GLP-1 shipments to pharmacies and earns fees on every box moved., CencoraAs one of the three largest U.S. drug wholesalers with strength in specialty drugs, it benefits from rising GLP-1 volume flowing through its distribution network., Cardinal HealthThe third major U.S. drug wholesaler earns on distribution volume, so growing GLP-1 patient numbers increase its revenue per box handled.23%
- It holds the largest share of the US GLP-1 market and leads in oral formulations and Medicare coverage, making it the most direct way to own this take. · Eli Lilly and CompanyIt commands the leading share of US GLP-1 prescriptions with an approved oral pill, and the majority of seniors starting GLP-1 therapy choose its medications, positioning it to maintain dominance as the category grows.22%
- Weekly injectable GLP-1s require vials, cartridges, rubber stoppers, needles and prefilled pen parts for each dose, creating steady demand tied to prescription volume. · West Pharmaceutical ServicesIt makes the rubber stoppers, plungers and seals inside injectable GLP-1 pens and vials, earning revenue on every dose administered., Becton, Dickinson and CompanyIt manufactures syringes, needles and prefilled injector components that GLP-1 makers need for every patient dose, so prescription volume drives its sales., Stevanato GroupIt produces the glass vials and cartridges that hold injectable GLP-1s in pens and multi-dose packs, creating a direct link to prescription volume.19%
- Cash7%