Regulatory Capture Challengers
Clayton@clayton
−11.7%
since Sep 30
The idea
My belief is that newer public companies are learning to work with regulators instead of against them, and once a company's license becomes its moat, the market reprices it, much like Coinbase did once its regulatory position solidified. I built this around licensed nuclear and next-gen defense contractors, then layered in government AI and surveillance vendors, tariff-protected steel and rail names, certification-gated air taxis, and companies where Washington itself holds equity. I keep no single position above roughly 9% and hold about 8% in cash.
What it owns
- The NRC approval process takes years and blocks new entrants, so the first companies licensed to build and fuel reactors get a durable competitive advantage. · Oklo Inc.It is pursuing the NRC's new fast-track approval path for small modular reactors while the administration pushes nuclear licensing speed, putting it first in line for the regulatory moat., Centrus EnergyIt is the only US company licensed to enrich the advanced fuel new reactors require, a one-of-a-kind domestic monopoly backed by government contracts., NuScale PowerIt holds the only small modular reactor design the NRC has approved, a regulatory head start that translates directly into exclusive supply for years., BWX TechnologiesIt manufactures reactors for US Navy submarines and carriers, a classified franchise that requires decades of security clearances competitors cannot quickly match., Uranium Energy CorpIt supplies the US government's strategic uranium reserve, so Washington is directly funding domestic supply and tariff policy keeps foreign uranium at bay.28%
- The Pentagon is channeling spending toward software platforms and unmanned systems from newer contractors, and winning classified programs creates years of switching costs for rivals. · Palantir TechnologiesIt has become the standardized software platform for government defense and AI programs, and replacing it creates enormous switching costs across agencies., Kratos DefenseIt builds the low-cost unmanned systems the Pentagon's procurement reforms explicitly favor, displacing spending from legacy defense contractors., Rocket LabIt is earning national security launch certification that restricts which companies can carry classified payloads, a regulatory gate that locks out new competitors., AeroVironmentIts drones are the Pentagon standard for small unmanned systems, and every new program written around its platform deepens the lock-in for the buyer.22%
- Import tariffs on steel and the pending rail merger approval create durable moats that current policy is actively widening. · NucorIt is the largest beneficiary of tariffs protecting domestic steel, and it is building new capacity that assumes tariff protection remains in place., Union PacificIt stands to gain the transcontinental scale advantages of the pending rail merger, and policy is redirecting freight onto railroads., Cleveland-CliffsIt is the most protected steelmaker under current tariff policy, making its margins and growth directly dependent on trade barriers staying in place., WabtecIt is the near-monopoly builder of locomotives, so policy that shifts more freight to railways runs directly through its order book.14%
- Agencies are standardizing on the AI and surveillance vendors they adopt first, and switching costs make early embeddedness hard to displace. · Axon EnterpriseOnce police departments adopt its camera and evidence management platform, the switching costs are so high that leaving becomes nearly impossible., Planet LabsIt sells satellite imagery directly to defense and intelligence agencies riding the government spending expansion on surveillance and AI., Clear SecureIt operates the private biometric identity system inside TSA checkpoints, a gatekeeping position that exists only because regulators permit it.11%
- FAA type certification for air taxis and federal stablecoin licenses are so slow and expensive to obtain that the first companies approved face minimal regulatory competition. · Joby AviationIt is furthest along in obtaining FAA type certification for air taxis, and whoever finishes first will have years of regulatory head start before competitors qualify., Archer AviationIt is in the small club of companies advancing toward FAA certification for air taxis and is inside the federal eVTOL pilot program alongside Joby., Circle Internet GroupIt is among the first licensed federal stablecoin issuers, a regulatory position that legislation is designed to protect from unvetted competitors.10%
- Washington has taken direct ownership stakes and guaranteed prices in these companies, the most explicit form of regulatory support available. · MP MaterialsThe Pentagon took an equity stake and established a price floor for its rare earth minerals, the clearest example of Washington picking a preferred supplier., Energy FuelsIt is positioned as the next government-backed critical minerals champion, producing uranium and rare earths that Washington wants sourced domestically.7%
- Cash8%