El día después del GLP-1
Santiago Cervera@santiago
−1.9%
since Oct 6
The idea
Creo que adelgazar con GLP-1 ya está en precio, pero lo que viene después no: quien llega a su objetivo no suelta el tratamiento, y eso abre un mercado de mantenimiento crónico, con dosis menores, precios menores y vías nuevas como las amilinas y los orales. La cesta combina los grandes laboratorios que ya compiten por esa segunda generación, biotechs centradas por completo en el mantenimiento con peso extra en orales, y la capa de fabricación y acceso que sostiene un tratamiento pensado para décadas.
What it owns
- Large pharmaceutical companies already acquiring and developing second-generation amylin and oral therapies, with scale and direct channels to sell maintenance treatment to self-paying patients. · Novo NordiskCagriSema combines GLP-1 with amylin analog and amicretina adds oral option, positioning the company to serve a dedicated maintenance market if it emerges, provided programs advance and competitive position holds., Eli LillyDominates initial wave with tirzepatida while developing eloralintide for amylin and orforglipron as oral candidates for lower-cost maintenance dosing after weight loss targets are met., AstraZenecaCovers both pathways simultaneously with small-molecule GLP-1 oral and amylin program, arriving late to acute weight loss but positioned to compete directly in affordable maintenance if both programs advance., PfizerAcquired Metsera specifically for amylin and extended-interval GLP-1, second-generation therapies anticipated for maintenance, requiring successful integration and long-term durability trials., AbbVieLicensed amylin from Gubra to pursue the complementary pathophysiology critical for maintenance rather than acute weight loss, requiring clinical advancement and positioning as continuity treatment., AmgenMariTide monthly dosing fits chronic treatment criteria like statins or blood pressure drugs with fewer injections and potential for lifelong adherence, requiring maintained weight loss on extended dosing intervals.40%
- Companies whose entire premise is continuity treatment: oral formulations, low doses, and muscle preservation during years of use. · Structure TherapeuticsSmall-molecule oral is the natural path for self-paying patients who want a cheap pill for life, making this a core bet on oral efficacy and safety in trials., Viking TherapeuticsOffers both oral and injectable formulations of the same compound, allowing initial intensive treatment followed by transition to lower-dose oral maintenance if efficacy data supports the shift., AltimmuneAddresses the day-after problem through muscle preservation with pemvidutide, critical for patients who lost significant weight and want years of stable treatment supported by confirmed muscle-sparing data., Scholar RockDevelops apitegromab to protect muscle during prolonged GLP-1 use, directly addressing muscle loss concerns in chronic therapy and supporting the lifetime maintenance market if program advances.26%
- Self-paying overweight patients purchase through direct, low-cost channels, and lifetime treatment multiplies pens, vials and peptides regardless of which molecule wins. · Hims & Hers HealthDirect subscription channel for cheap, ongoing access to GLP-1 for self-paying overweight patients whose insurance rarely covers maintenance, requiring sustained access to branded GLP-1 or legal alternatives., West Pharmaceutical ServicesManufactures pen and syringe components consumed continuously over decades of treatment, capturing volume from lifetime injectable maintenance regardless of which molecule succeeds., Thermo Fisher ScientificContract manufacturer of peptides for major pharmaceutical and biotech companies, capturing chronic maintenance demand volume regardless of which therapy wins., Stevanato GroupManufactures pens and vials for injectable therapies across the industry, capturing volume-based revenue if lifetime maintenance market materializes, though oral displacement presents downside risk.24%
- Cash10%