Crypto Rails, Not Coins
Brian@barmstrong
· 1
−2.1%
since Sep 15
The idea
I think the real money in crypto over the next decade goes to whoever runs the rails, not whoever holds the coins. So this owns the toll collectors: payment and stablecoin networks, the old-guard exchanges, and the custody and tokenization players, with a smaller slice in crypto-native platforms for extra upside. No miners, since that is just a leveraged coin bet, and I keep some cash on hand and lean on the larger, profitable names to ride out a crypto winter.
What it owns
- If stablecoins become a settlement layer over time, the issuers and payment networks connected to them collect transaction tolls on every transfer. · Circle Internet GroupIt issues USDC and earns yield on billions in reserves backing the stablecoin, which is the purest model for stablecoins as a settlement layer., VisaIt is already settling some transactions in stablecoins and could become a major stablecoin rail if it expands pilot programs into meaningful volumes rather than letting stablecoins route around existing card networks., MastercardIt runs card rails behind most crypto debit cards and is building tokenized settlement networks, winning if crypto spending flows through existing card infrastructure., BlockIt is building bitcoin payments into Square and Cash App, betting that merchants and consumers will transact in crypto and pay fees on that activity., PayPal HoldingsIt issued its own stablecoin and earns yield on reserves while plugging it into a network of hundreds of millions of users.28%
- Established exchanges collect derivatives and listing fees without taking crypto onto their balance sheets, earning tolls whether prices rise or fall. · CME GroupIt runs the dominant regulated venue for bitcoin and ether futures where institutions hedge and speculate, collecting tolls through any market cycle., Intercontinental ExchangeIt owns regulated exchanges and data feeds that everyone pays for, and benefits if tokenized assets trade on established venues while providing stable revenue if crypto activity slows., Cboe Global MarketsIt lists many spot crypto ETFs and earns fees on the trading and listings that come with ETF-wrapped crypto products., NasdaqIt sells matching engines and surveillance software that crypto exchanges run on, earning fees whether crypto platforms build their own systems or buy established technology.24%
- Big custody banks and asset managers hold tokenized assets and run the funds that wrap them, collecting management fees as institutions move into crypto through regulated structures. · BlackRockIt runs the largest bitcoin ETF and leading tokenized money market fund, collecting management fees on every dollar institutions move into crypto through regulated wrappers., State StreetIt is one of the giant custody banks building digital asset custody services, and would collect fees if real assets get tokenized and require professional safekeeping., Interactive BrokersIt is the infrastructure allowing institutions and serious retail to trade crypto alongside traditional assets, earning commissions and interest on both.16%
- Platforms earn fees on every crypto trade and transaction, getting paid on activity regardless of whether prices rise or fall. · Robinhood MarketsIt is a major destination for retail crypto trading and earns fees on every trade that flows through its platform., Galaxy DigitalIt runs trading, lending, and asset management services for institutions moving into crypto, paying off if institutional adoption grows., BullishIt runs a regulated exchange aimed at institutions and collects fees on their crypto trades if institutional volume materializes., eToro GroupIt is the retail crypto gateway outside the US, earning fees on trades across dozens of countries as global adoption expands.14%
- Cash18%