Agentic CPU Supply Chain
Felipe de Antuñano@fdeantunano
The idea
I believe inference and agentic workloads will keep driving demand for CPUs far beyond what training alone needed, and that the steadiest way to benefit is to own the supply chain every chip has to pass through rather than bet on one designer. So the bulk sits in fab tools and wafer capacity like ASML, Applied Materials, Lam, KLA, TSMC and Intel, with smaller slices in packaging, testing and materials, and just a touch in CPU designers like AMD and Arm. No single name dominates, and I keep a small cash buffer to add on dips. I'd rethink this if inference demand growth clearly stalls.
What it owns
- New fab capacity requires specialized machines, so tool makers benefit whenever chipmakers expand production. · ASML HoldingThe sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines that every leading-edge CPU depends on, so CPU growth drives demand for its tools., Applied MaterialsSupplies the deposition and etch machines that build every chip layer, benefiting from increased CPU manufacturing capacity., Lam ResearchMakes etch and deposition tools that become more critical as chips grow taller and denser, matching CPU design trends., KLAProvides inspection tools that catch defects, and complex multi-chiplet CPUs require more rigorous testing per wafer.33%
- Modern server CPUs built from multiple smaller chips require more packaging and testing work per chip than previous designs. · Amkor TechnologyHandles advanced packaging and testing for server CPUs built from chiplets, which demand more sophisticated packaging than monolithic designs., TeradyneProvides test equipment that handles increasingly complex CPUs, with larger and denser chips requiring longer and more expensive test cycles., Onto InnovationSupplies inspection and metrology tools used heavily in advanced packaging, where chiplet CPUs get assembled., FormFactorMakes probe cards for wafer-level testing that must be refreshed for each new CPU design, with volume growth driving card consumption., CamtekProduces inspection tools for advanced packaging lines, seeing increased demand as chiplet-based CPUs and stacked memory proliferate.21%
- Server CPUs must be manufactured at leading-edge fabs, and very few exist to make them. · Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingMakes the vast majority of leading-edge server CPUs from all major designers, so more CPU production flows through its factories., IntelSells Xeon server CPUs and operates its own foundry capacity, gaining from both CPU demand and internal manufacturing expansion.17%
- Fabs consume chemicals, filters, photomasks and components daily, so suppliers benefit as manufacturing volume increases. · EntegrisSupplies filters, chemicals and containers that fabs consume continuously, so sales track wafer production volumes., MKS Inc.Supplies power, gas and chemical components integrated into fab tools and substrate plating, benefiting from tool and substrate demand growth., Ultra Clean HoldingsManufactures gas and fluid subsystems that go inside tools from equipment makers, so its orders track their growth., PhotronicsMakes photomasks that serve as stencils for every new CPU design, supporting both traditional and custom chip development.13%
- Direct exposure to companies whose chips power agent servers. · Advanced Micro DevicesDesigns server CPUs that compete directly in agent workload markets, with growing demand supporting its EPYC processor line., Arm HoldingsCollects royalties on CPU designs built using its architecture, earning fees whether chips come from established vendors or custom cloud builders.10%
- Cash6%