The Fake Jobs Economy
anders@anders
+2.1%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe AI and automation will take over most real production over the next decade, concentrating wealth with a small elite while the rest of us keep "working" jobs that feel more like busywork, propped up by paychecks and some form of basic income. The basket owns that whole chain: the companies building AI and robotics, a slice of where machine-owner wealth pools, the tools that keep office theater running, and the mass-market spending, entertainment and mid-tier wallet that keeps everyone occupied.
What it owns
- These companies sell the automation that captures value as machines take over real output. · NVIDIAIt supplies the processors that handle AI compute, so it captures value as machines take over real production work., MicrosoftIt embeds AI into the software offices already run, so the shift of output from people to machines happens through its tools., AlphabetIt automates at consumer scale through search, ads and AI models, converting research into products billions use daily., Palantir TechnologiesIt sells the software that lets AI run a company's operations, the mechanism for real work moving to machines., TeradyneIt owns robot-arm businesses that replace human hands on assembly lines, staying strong as industrial robot adoption spreads., Rockwell AutomationIt provides robots and automation for factories, holding value as manufacturers spend to automate plants instead of hiring.28%
- Hours freed from real work flow to screens, games and bets, the lowest-cost ways to stay occupied. · Meta PlatformsIt collects rent on attention from feeds and video as idle hours expand, growing with daily usage and ad revenue., NetflixIt is the default answer to a free evening, growing with more idle time and holding pricing power as viewer hours expand., Spotify TechnologyIt fills background hours both at the office desk and off it, growing with listening hours and paying subscriber counts., DraftKingsIt takes bets from people with stipends and nothing urgent to spend them on, growing as legal betting spreads and handle expands., RobloxIt captures idle hours from young users with time and small budgets, growing with daily users and spending per user., Take-Two InteractiveIt makes long-session games that eat whole days, exactly what people reach for when work stops filling hours.24%
- Steady paychecks and stipends keep middle-class spending alive, flowing to bulk groceries, cheap meals and affordable trips. · WalmartIt is where careful paycheck money goes when budgets tighten, winning the shopper who watches every dollar., Costco WholesaleIt captures the bulk-buying habit of households with income but flat wages, growing with membership and renewal rates., McDonald'sIt sells cheap calories to people paid enough to eat out but not enough for anything fancier, thriving on value-menu traffic., AirbnbIt sells affordable travel when time gets cheap and time-rich people stretch budgets over longer, cheaper stays., TJX CompaniesIt turns bargain hunting into an afternoon activity for people with time and tight budgets, winning share from full-price retail.20%
- The commute, the meeting and the paycheck persist, so the plumbing of the workday keeps earning even at zero productivity. · Automatic Data ProcessingIt gets paid per employee per paycheck regardless of whether the job produces anything, holding value as headcount and processing stay steady., Uber TechnologiesIt sells the commute when people still go to offices to perform jobs, holding as ride volume keeps growing., StarbucksIt sells the coffee run that makes a fake job feel real, holding as workday ritual spending stays intact., Zoom CommunicationsIt is meetings as a product, the purest form of zero-productivity work, holding as companies keep paying for meeting software.12%
- Machine ownership concentrates wealth with asset managers and luxury goods, as production shifts away from wages. · BlackstoneIt compounds wealth for the people who own the machines, growing as machine-owner assets and fee income concentrate., BlackRockIt manages the pooled wealth of the ownership class, growing as machine-owner wealth concentrates in assets under management., FerrariIt sells what concentrated wealth buys when it has nothing left to prove, staying strong as demand from the very rich stays insensitive.9%
- Cash7%