Resale Eats Retail
NickyAds@nickyads
+6.9%
since Sep 30
The idea
I think secondhand clothing has already overtaken new retail, and the squeeze on wallets over the next couple of years will only push more shoppers toward resale and off-price. This basket leans into the winners of that shift: online resale platforms and thrift operators carry the most weight, off-price chains add steadier ballast, and a smaller slice covers the payment and shipping rails the trade runs on plus a few brands that hold their resale value. I'm keeping some cash on the side to add if prices dip, and I'd rethink the idea if full-price retail starts winning shoppers back.
What it owns
- Marketplaces for secondhand clothing are where the shift from new to used retail directly plays out in transaction volume. · eBayIt is already the largest platform where people buy and sell used clothing, positioning it to capture growth if secondhand outpaces new retail., The RealRealIt operates the luxury end of the same shift, showing whether the trade-down from new to consigned reaches high-end brands., ThredUpIt makes money only from secondhand clothing sales online, making it a direct bet on whether resale order volume keeps rising., EtsyIt owns Depop, where younger shoppers buy and sell secondhand fashion, betting on the next generation defaulting to used., Rent the RunwayIt lets people wear clothes without buying them new, serving the same trade-down behavior in subscription form instead of ownership.33%
- Value retailers serve the same price-conscious shoppers, providing a read on whether the trade-down is real and sustaining. · TJX CompaniesIt is where full-price shoppers trade down, serving as ballast that shows the premise requires its traffic to keep growing while malls shrink., Ross StoresIt serves the most price-squeezed shoppers, providing the clearest signal on whether wallet pressure is pushing people out of new retail., Burlington StoresIt is the smaller off-price chain with room to grow by capturing customers leaving full-price retail locations.20%
- Physical thrift chains capture shoppers trading down from full-price retail without requiring digital adoption or app usage. · Savers Value VillageIt is the largest physical thrift chain, so it directly captures shoppers leaving full-price retail as wallets tighten., WinmarkIt franchises secondhand stores and earns royalties as franchisees open locations, earning on the shift without operating the stores themselves.16%
- Payment processors and shippers earn on every secondhand transaction regardless of which direction the money or package moves. · PayPalIt moves money in peer-to-peer and marketplace payments when used clothes change hands, earning on resale transaction volume., United Parcel ServiceIt ships the small parcels that secondhand resale generates, one seller to one buyer, earning on residential volume growth., BlockIts Cash App is how many casual resellers get paid, so its volume grows as secondhand selling rises.11%
- Durable brands that resell well become easier to justify buying new when resale value is part of the purchase story. · Levi StraussIts clothes hold value when resold, making new purchases easier to justify and showing durability winning over fast fashion., BirkenstockIts products last for years and resell well, the opposite of disposable fast fashion and a sign shoppers are paying for durability.8%
- Cash12%