Race for the Next iPhone
anil@anil
−9.6%
since Oct 6
The idea
I think ambient computing, glasses, screenless assistants, voice-first wearables, is about to fight the phone for attention over the next two or three years, and the catalysts are already on the calendar. Since nobody knows which brand wins, I own the contenders with a real shot at the device plus the suppliers who get paid regardless, the low-power chips, microphones, tiny displays, optics, and the factories and batteries behind them. It's concentrated and higher-beta on purpose, with some cash kept aside to add if things dip.
What it owns
- These brands have the scale, ecosystem or installed base to build the ambient device that joins or replaces the phone. · Meta PlatformsIt already ships ambient glasses that people buy today and keeps launching new models, giving it the only real consumer foothold in the race., AppleIt owns the iPhone and has the deepest hardware bench to defend with, so it either leads the ambient device race or loses the most., AlphabetIt is pushing Gemini into glasses and wearables through Android, which positions it as the software brain even if another company builds the hardware., AmazonIt has the largest installed base of voice-first, screenless computing through Alexa, a potential head start if attention moves away from the phone.32%
- Every ambient device needs low-power processors, microphones and sensors, so these suppliers get paid regardless of which brand wins the device race. · QualcommIt supplies the low-power chips inside most smart glasses shipping today, so it collects royalties whichever brand wins the larger device race., Cirrus LogicIt makes audio and voice processing chips that go into voice-first devices, technology that becomes more valuable if ambient hardware prioritizes better listening., AmbarellaIt makes camera chips that run AI on almost no battery, the exact technology glasses need to see and understand the world around the wearer., BroadcomIt supplies wireless connectivity chips that every ambient gadget needs, so it gets paid on volume growth as new device categories scale., KnowlesIt makes tiny microphones that every voice-first device needs multiple units of, so more ambient gadgets means more microphones sold.28%
- Tiny displays and see-through optics are the hardest engineering problem in glasses, and only a few companies can manufacture them at scale. · Himax TechnologiesIt supplies the display drivers and microdisplay technology that smart glasses need to put images in front of eyes without blocking the view., CoherentIt supplies lasers and optics that go into waveguides and projection systems, technology every display-equipped glasses maker has to buy., VuzixIt makes waveguide optics, the see-through lens technology glasses need, and one major customer win could transform its business., KopinIt is a pure-play bet on microdisplays, the tiny screens that make glasses work, so design wins in consumer glasses would drive significant upside.17%
- Contract manufacturers and battery makers assemble and power the winning device, so they profit on volume without betting on a single brand. · JabilIt is a leading contract manufacturer positioned to assemble ambient devices at scale, so it profits on volume growth regardless of which brand wins., FlexIt is a major contract manufacturer positioned to build ambient devices at scale, so it profits on volume without picking the winning brand., EnovixIt makes batteries that pack more energy into tiny spaces, technology all-day glasses and screenless assistants need to function away from power.13%
- Cash10%