The Last Call Comeback
Best of
@favoritetakes
−0.3%
since Sep 28
The idea
I think the pullback in drinking is overdone and volumes stabilize or turn back up over the next 2-3 years. The bet is spread across beaten-down alcohol producers, the bars and venues where traffic recovers first, the bottling and can supply chain that fills back up regardless of brand, and emerging-market drinkers whose demand never really dropped. No single name dominates, and I'm keeping a small cash buffer while I watch for real volume trends, not just quarterly noise, to confirm or kill the thesis.
What it owns
- Spirits and beer makers trade at decade-low valuations despite owning dominant brands, leaving room for gains if drinking volumes merely stabilize rather than continue declining. · DiageoIt owns the world's largest spirits portfolio and trades near decade lows because the market assumes consumption keeps falling, leaving upside if volumes stabilize., Constellation BrandsModelo remains America's best-selling beer yet the stock is priced as if the brand is fading, offering gains if US beer demand stops shrinking., Brown-FormanIt took larger losses than most producers as whiskey demand fell after the pandemic, meaning American whiskey has the most room to recover if drinking reverses., Anheuser-Busch InBevIt is the world's largest brewer, so even modest improvements in beer volumes translate into measurable earnings gains globally., Molson CoorsIt trades among the cheapest stocks in the basket because investors have abandoned mainstream American beer, but stable volumes would unlock significant cash generation., Boston Beer CompanyIt reaches younger drinkers through Truly, Twisted Tea and craft lines, offering the purest read on whether Gen Z picks up drinking again.36%
- Bars, casinos, concert venues and casual restaurants show recovery in foot traffic and alcohol spending before it appears in producers' financial results. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt sells beverages at concert venues where social drinking recovers fastest, so per-attendee alcohol spending is a leading indicator of the broader trend., Caesars EntertainmentIt generates significant beverage revenue across casino floors and Vegas bars, which rises directly with increases in visitation and on-property alcohol consumption., Brinker InternationalChili's margarita sales are a meaningful part of the business, making bar revenue at casual restaurants a clear signal of whether people are drinking more when eating out., Dave & Buster'sIt operates the bar-and-games nights out that faded during the sobriety trend, so early traffic recovery signals whether younger adults are returning to those occasions., RCI HospitalityIt operates nightclubs where alcohol is the largest revenue source, making it the highest-leverage way to bet on nightlife returning if the reversal is real., BJ's RestaurantsIt brews its own beer and sells it in its restaurants, winning on both higher traffic and higher-margin alcohol sales if casual dining drinking recovers.26%
- Makers of bottles, cans and distilled spirits recover as total drinking volumes stabilize, regardless of which brand gains or loses share. · MGP IngredientsIt supplies whiskey to many other brands' bottles and collapsed as the industry worked off excess inventory, recovering when orders resume regardless of brand winners., O-I GlassIt makes glass bottles for alcohol and does not depend on any single brand winning, only on total bottled volumes stabilizing after years of decline., Ball CorporationIt manufactures cans for beer and ready-to-drink cocktails, so orders rise with any increase in drinking volumes across all producers and brands., Crown HoldingsIt is the second-largest can maker, doubling the bet on beverage packaging without depending on any single supplier's execution.19%
- Latin American beer demand stayed resilient through the recent decline, providing steady earnings while the US market stabilizes and recovers. · AmbevIt sells beer across Brazil and Latin America where demand held steady during the US decline, providing stable earnings while the US market recovers., Fomento Económico MexicanoIt owns convenience stores across Mexico that sell enormous volumes of beer, plus a stake in regional Coca-Cola bottling, providing steady Latin American drinking demand., Compañía Cervecerías UnidasIt dominates beer sales in Chile and benefits as consumer spending improves in the Andes, rounding out emerging-market demand independent of US trends.11%
- Cash8%