Scarcity Dies: Gems and Space
Sunil Neurgaonkar@sunil
−6.3%
since Oct 2
The idea
I believe ornamental scarcity is ending: lab-grown diamonds keep taking share from mined stones, and over time space resource extraction should do the same to precious metals. Rather than bet against gold, I own the disruptors, pure plays in lab-grown jewelry and space infrastructure and access, backed by established aerospace names for ballast. This is a decade-scale structural shift, not a quick trade, so I hold broadly and keep a modest cash reserve to add on dips.
What it owns
- Companies building satellites, stations, sensors, and systems that operate in orbit earn steady revenue from the expanding space economy without depending on any single breakthrough. · ARK Space Exploration ETFA diversified fund holding multiple space companies provides exposure to the sector's long-term growth while reducing dependence on any single company's execution., RedwireIt builds equipment and infrastructure for on-orbit operations, capturing value at the critical transition between launch and productive use of space., L3Harris TechnologiesIt supplies satellite sensors and payloads to government and commercial customers, capturing steady revenue from rising demand across the space buildout., Voyager TechnologiesIts Starlab commercial space station represents the permanent infrastructure needed for a functioning off-Earth economy, capturing value as the transition from government to private stations accelerates., Northrop GrummanIt manufactures satellites, rockets, and space systems with stable government funding behind it, providing ballast that profits from space buildout regardless of resource extraction outcomes., HEICOIt supplies aerospace parts across the industry, collecting a toll on every vehicle that flies including space systems, without betting on any single rocket or mission., Planet LabsIt operates imaging satellites delivering daily Earth data under recurring contracts, demonstrating that space-based services can generate real revenue today.38%
- Cheap and reliable rides to orbit are the foundation for any space economy, and companies providing launch capacity get paid on volume regardless of which applications succeed. · Rocket LabThe proven small-launch operator carries the core conviction that cheap access to orbit enables the entire space economy as its flight cadence and Neutron development progress., BWX TechnologiesIt develops nuclear propulsion for deep-space missions and earns current revenue from reactor sales, making it a picks-and-shovels beneficiary regardless of whether asteroid mining materializes., Intuitive MachinesIts lunar landers deliver payloads for government and private customers, earning revenue as the Moon becomes the nearest platform for exploring space-based resources., Firefly AerospaceIt adds another low-cost launch option and lander capability to the market, increasing competition and capacity that makes space resource development economically viable., Kratos Defense & SecurityIt designs and builds rocket engines and propulsion systems for other companies' vehicles, earning revenue from every launch rather than from a single program's success., Karman HoldingsIt supplies components integrated into most US rockets and missiles, earning revenue on every flight as launch rates increase.36%
- As lab-grown diamonds become cheaper and more common, jewelers selling them gain margin while input costs fall, and direct sellers win share from traditional retail. · Signet JewelersThe largest US jeweler benefits as lab-grown stones lower input costs while retail prices hold, improving margins across its Kay and Zales banners., Brilliant Earth GroupDirect-to-consumer sales of lab-grown diamonds align with the shift away from scarcity, with upside tied to market share gains as lab-grown penetration grows.18%
- Cash8%