Buy the Dip, Fade Fear, Ditch Bitcoin
r2r@artur
+0.4%
since Oct 8
The idea
I think the market has gotten lopsided: a handful of AI giants prop up the S&P while small caps, regional banks, utilities, homebuilders and transports have been beaten down by surging yields. This take buys that neglected half of the market, leans on funds that gain when volatility stays calm or fades, and takes the other side of bitcoin through inverse funds plus gold and miners as the real store of value. I keep a cash cushion to add if the selloff deepens, and I'd rethink this if yields keep ripping higher with no relief for the beaten-down names.
What it owns
- Small caps, banks, utilities, homebuilders and transportation have fallen as yields climbed to multi-year highs, creating opportunities if rates stabilize and these sectors catch up with the broader market. · iShares Russell 2000 ETFIt tracks small companies, which borrowed heavily and fell hard as the ten-year yield climbed, making it the broadest way to bet they rebound as yields stabilize., Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFIt holds every S&P company in equal weight, so it captures the broader market instead of a handful of AI-driven giants, and performs well if the gap between those leaders and the rest of the market closes., SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETFIt holds regional banks whose profits are squeezed when long-term yields jump, so it depends on the ten-year yield topping out near current levels., Utilities Select Sector SPDR FundIt tracks utilities that trade like bonds and have fallen sharply with rising yields, benefiting if rates stop climbing and AI power demand grows., iShares U.S. Home Construction ETFIt holds homebuilders that have fallen as mortgage rates climbed, offering the most direct exposure to a slowdown in mortgage rates., iShares U.S. Transportation ETFIt tracks transportation companies sensitive to interest rates and fuel costs, making it a barometer for whether the broader economy is holding up., Real Estate Select Sector SPDR FundIt holds real estate companies hit twice by rising yields, both through higher borrowing costs and competition with bonds for income investors., Zions BancorporationIt stands to recover more than the broader banking sector if interest rate pressures ease and its loan book remains stable., D.R. HortonIt is the largest U.S. homebuilder and most directly tied to mortgage rates easing, making it the single-stock expression of that bet.52%
- This bucket profits if bitcoin falls, combining inverse bitcoin funds with gold and gold miners as alternative stores of value. · ProShares Short Bitcoin ETFIt rises when bitcoin falls each day and needs bitcoin to drop with conviction since daily resets cause decay in choppy markets., SPDR Gold SharesIt represents gold as the traditional store of value that could outperform bitcoin if confidence in cryptocurrency fades., VanEck Gold Miners ETFIt holds gold miners that amplify gold's gains when prices rise, swinging harder than gold itself in both directions., ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETFIt moves twice the daily inverse of bitcoin for extra downside exposure, decaying faster in choppy markets so it stays small and needs conviction in bitcoin's fall.25%
- These positions gain when expected market volatility falls, providing exposure to the view that fear remains contained. · ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETFIt gains when volatility expectations fall, moving about half as much as the full-strength short-VIX fund for steadier exposure to lower fear., -1x Short VIX Futures ETFIt rises when volatility expectations fall and has climbed strongly this year, but faces large single-day losses if market fear spikes.13%
- Cash10%