Consulting Survives the Shakeout
sidv@sidv
+8.1%
since Sep 30
The idea
I think the market is overreacting to AI killing consulting, when really it's killing the deck factories and body shops. Companies are still run by humans making hard calls, and someone has to stand behind the answer, so I own the judgment work like disputes and restructuring that's hard to automate, paired with firms actually building AI into implementation rather than just presenting it, plus government transformation specialists and AI-native disruptors doing real deployment work. I skip pure staffing and IT outsourcing on purpose.
What it owns
- Disputes, restructuring, and expert analysis get paid because a credible human stands behind the conclusion, which software cannot replace. · FTI ConsultingIt specializes in restructuring and disputes where clients pay for expert testimony and accountability, work that AI cannot provide credibly., GartnerIt sells credible research to executives making expensive AI decisions, a second opinion service that grows more valuable as the stakes of those decisions rise., Huron Consulting GroupIt advises hospitals and universities on costly, regulated decisions where leaders need accountable consultants beside them, not just software., CRA InternationalIt provides expert testimony and litigation analysis that only counts when a named expert signs and defends the work under cross-examination., ExponentIt investigates failures and provides expert analysis that clients can only trust when a credible firm puts its name on the report.30%
- Large consultancies that advise on strategy and then build the solution can use AI to improve margins instead of watching it erode their business. · AccentureIt advises on strategy and builds implementations itself, creating a margin advantage as AI becomes a standard tool rather than a threat to advisory work., IBMIt combines consulting advice with proprietary AI tools and implementation services, allowing it to sell the full solution to enterprises building AI systems., EPAM SystemsIts engineers shift from routine outsourcing toward building AI systems for clients, surviving a transition period as the old work shrinks and new work scales., GlobantIt delivers AI-first digital implementations for clients rather than slides, offering a smaller entry point than larger adopting-incumbent consultancies.25%
- Government agencies must hire outside consultants to deploy AI systems, and these firms are embedded in missions where accountability matters. · Booz Allen HamiltonIt embeds consultants inside federal agencies to modernize systems and deploy AI where government accountability matters more than cost cutting., LeidosIt delivers long-term defense modernization contracts where government pays for completed systems and the contractor must answer for performance., CACI InternationalIt places technical staff inside government agencies to build and deploy systems, adding delivered value rather than just advisory recommendations., Science Applications InternationalIt modernizes government systems through unglamorous, practical work that agencies cannot do themselves and cannot hand to automation.20%
- Engineering firms that deploy staff inside client organizations to build AI systems take on the work that slower incumbents lose during the transition. · Palantir TechnologiesIt deploys engineers inside client operations to build AI systems directly, capturing work that slower consultancies cannot deliver fast enough., Grid DynamicsIt builds AI systems for enterprises without selling strategy decks, making it a pure disruptor bet at smaller scale than incumbents., InnodataIt supplies data preparation and enrichment that AI models need, a picks-and-shovels angle on building AI systems for enterprise clients.17%
- Cash8%