The Great Dispersion
Jonny Mack
@nonlinear
−1.3%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe the internet has permanently loosened the tie between careers and city living, so growth shifts toward exurbs, Sun Belt markets, and land near outdoor recreation and airports, while cities gradually lose their old premium. Covid just previewed a decade-long move. The basket leans heaviest into land, homebuilders, and rural-adjacent landlords, backed by the infrastructure enabling remote life, the spending that follows a rural lifestyle, and businesses built to win even as cities shrink.
What it owns
- Owners and builders of houses and acreage outside cities capture growth first when people spread out from urban centers. · D.R. HortonThe largest US homebuilder gets most of its volume from cheaper land outside urban cores, where young people are moving instead of to dense city centers., The St. Joe CompanyOwns huge tracts of raw Florida panhandle land near beaches and regional airports, capturing recreation-plus-access appeal as people move to amenity-rich rural areas., American Homes 4 RentOwns and builds rental houses in growing suburban and exurban markets, capturing movers who want space before they buy., WeyerhaeuserOwns millions of acres of US timberland that gains value two ways: lumber demand from rural and exurban building, and selling acres for development., Invitation HomesRents single-family houses concentrated in Sun Belt metros, collecting rent from people dispersing out of expensive cities., Sun CommunitiesOwns RV resorts and manufactured-housing communities near lakes, coasts, and outdoor draws, operating as a direct landlord on recreation-adjacent living., RayonierOwns millions of acres in the US South and Pacific Northwest, increasingly selling parcels for higher-value rural development near growing areas., LGI HomesBuilds cheap starter homes on the far edges of metros for first-time buyers priced out of closer-in locations.48%
- These companies replace jobs, culture, and services that cities used to provide, so they gain as urban living costs rise and people move away. · U-Haul HoldingMakes money on one-way moves, and the classic route is out of expensive cities, so it captures value from urban decline directly., AmazonDelivers city-grade selection to any zip code, removing the retail disadvantage of leaving urban centers., ShopifyPlatform for building a business from anywhere, enabling the internet-native career that no longer needs a city office or storefront., Hims & Hers HealthDelivers healthcare by app and mail, removing the need to live near downtown clinics for medical access., Spotify TechnologyDelivers music, podcasts, and audiobooks identically in a mountain town and in Manhattan, replacing culture's traditional tie to city life.18%
- Remote careers only work where internet is fast, so companies wiring rural America collect tolls from the shift to dispersed living. · SBA CommunicationsOwns cell towers, and dispersed living means carriers must cover more square miles per person through rural and exurban tower leases., CalixSells software and gear that small rural broadband providers use to run fiber networks, the infrastructure backbone of dispersed living., CorningMakes the fiber optic cable that connects rural America, so broadband reaching spread-out places drives purchases., AST SpaceMobileBuilding satellites that connect regular phones in places towers don't reach, erasing one of the last coverage arguments for staying near a city.15%
- People who move for outdoor life spend on that life, from feed stores to RVs to ski towns and recreation. · Tractor SupplySells equipment, feed, and supplies that new rural residents buy once they own land or animals, making same-store sales growth a direct read on lifestyle migration., Vail ResortsOwns ski resorts that anchor mountain towns pulling in remote workers, capturing season pass sales from people who now live near the slopes., Thor IndustriesThe largest RV maker, capturing people who test or live rural life full-time while maintaining a portable career.12%
- Cash7%