Peptides End Obesity
Tal Morgenstern@talmorgenstern
· 1
+2.4%
since Oct 2
The idea
I believe retatrutide-class peptides will largely eliminate obesity, not just treat it, and the market still treats these drugs as a niche category. So the core is the companies that own the incretin franchises, with cash reserves held back as a buffer. Around that, I'm long steady, resilient junk food and soda names bought cheap on GLP-1 panic, and long group and experiential fitness businesses inheriting the spend as solo gyms and old diet programs lose share.
What it owns
- The companies that own the approved drugs and deepest obesity pipelines capture most of the market if peptides truly end obesity. · Eli LillyIt owns retatrutide, a next-generation peptide, plus the Zepbound franchise already selling, and captures the largest share if peptides substantially reduce obesity rates., Novo NordiskIt built the incretin category with Ozempic and Wegovy and maintains manufacturing scale to capture substantial market share if the addressable population is much larger than currently priced., AmgenIts monthly-injection obesity peptide represents a credible third major entrant, assuming the market is large enough to support multiple winners at current valuations., AstraZenecaIt is developing an oral GLP-1 candidate, which could reach patients unwilling to inject and expand the addressable population if efficacy holds through clinical trials.33%
- Snack and soda makers with the steadiest sales through past downturns were marked down in the GLP-1 panic, offering a rebound opportunity if consumption proves stickier than feared. · PepsiCoSnacking revenue held steady through past downturns and was marked down in the GLP-1 scare, betting that consumption stays resilient even in a population losing weight., Coca-ColaIt has a decades-long record of steady sales through market cycles and was discounted in the peptide panic, with the bet that volumes and pricing hold rather than collapse., Mondelez InternationalIt sells snacks globally where GLP-1 drugs will arrive years later than the US, so its sales face less near-term pressure from the drugs that panicked investors.22%
- Small pure-play peptide biotechs in obesity and other diseases, where a successful trial readout can significantly move the stock. · Viking TherapeuticsIt has an obesity peptide in late-stage trials where a strong readout could trigger a significant revaluation or acquisition interest in a pure-play small-cap format., Protagonist TherapeuticsIt applies peptide technology across multiple diseases beyond obesity with a major partnership, betting that peptide chemistry as a platform is undervalued., Bicycle TherapeuticsIt applies bicyclic peptides to cancer, extending beyond obesity into oncology where early-stage trial progress could drive meaningful rerating., Ascendis PharmaIt engineers long-acting versions of peptide drugs that could convert daily injections to monthly ones across multiple diseases, multiplying the value of peptide science., PepGenIt delivers genetic medicine into muscle using peptide technology, demonstrating that peptide platforms extend far beyond metabolic disease with optionality across multiple trials.22%
- Group and experiential fitness formats inherit money from solo gyms and old diet programs as the market shifts. · Life Time GroupIt operates full-service fitness clubs positioned as social destinations rather than solo gyms, appealing to the membership growth expected as obesity drugs spread., Xponential FitnessIt franchises boutique group fitness studios that attract members seeking community and social experience rather than solo gym workouts., OneSpaWorldIt operates spa and wellness services on cruise ships, capturing experiential spending from guests, and benefits from higher passenger counts and onboard spending.13%
- Cash10%