The Smaller Plate
CBM@cryptobigmartin
+3.3%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe GLP-1 weight-loss drugs move from niche to mass-market over the next decade, and the upside isn't limited to the two famous drugmakers. So this basket spreads across sixteen names: the drug makers, the injection supply chain, the telehealth and pharmacy access points, the foods people switch to, and the gyms and gear for keeping muscle on. No single name dominates, and I hold a small cash cushion to add on dips. This is built to sit for years, since a shift in how people eat won't show up in one quarter.
What it owns
- The companies that manufacture and sell these drugs capture the largest share of value as adoption widens. · Novo NordiskIt sells Wegovy and Ozempic, including the pill form, and holds the rest of the market while competing for share., Eli LillyIt sells Zepbound, Mounjaro and Foundayo pill and holds the largest share of the obesity market., AmgenIts obesity injection candidate moves through late-stage trials on a monthly dosing schedule, offering a different convenience profile than existing treatments.27%
- Users of these drugs eat less, so they shift toward protein and higher-quality food. · BellRing BrandsIt sells protein shakes, the food people reach for when appetite shrinks and protecting muscle means prioritizing protein., Vital FarmsIt sells premium eggs, a natural fit when people eating less choose quality protein over quantity., Sprouts Farmers MarketIt is the grocer built for eating less but eating better, so a mass shift in how people eat shows up in its baskets.17%
- Losing weight fast makes people want to keep muscle, which sends them to the gym and to gear. · Planet FitnessIt sells cheap gym memberships, and people losing weight are told to lift to keep muscle on., GarminIt sells fitness trackers people use to keep tabs on activity and body changes during weight loss., LululemonIt sells the gear people buy when they get active and their bodies change size.16%
- Every weekly dose needs a pen, a needle, a vial and a stopper, and these suppliers get paid whichever drug wins. · West Pharmaceutical ServicesIt makes the stoppers and seals injectable drugs need, and gets paid whichever drugmaker wins., Becton DickinsonIt sells the needles and syringes that scale directly with how many people are injecting each week., Stevanato GroupIt makes the syringes, cartridges and vials for injectables, a picks-and-shovels way to own adoption without picking the winning drug.16%
- Getting the drug to the patient runs through prescribers, pharmacies and distributors. · Hims & Hers HealthIt runs a telehealth channel that sells injections directly to consumers, one of the pipes that puts drugs in people's hands., CVS HealthIt controls pharmacy and benefit access, which decides who actually gets these drugs covered., CencoraIt distributes drugs, so it earns on the sheer volume of prescriptions moving through the system.14%
- Patients on these drugs who have diabetes track their glucose closely. · DexcomIt makes continuous glucose monitors, the tool for tracking the metabolic health these drugs are meant to fix.3%
- Cash8%