Everything Is Casino
Eli@eli
−0.2%
since Oct 2
The idea
My belief is that speculation and dopamine-seeking are permanent features of modern life, so instead of chasing volatility, I want to own the businesses that profit from it. The portfolio spans trading rails and volatility exchanges, casinos and slot makers, attention and gaming platforms, the chemical layer of energy drinks and nicotine, and live spectacle, while deliberately skipping sportsbooks and dating apps. I keep a cash buffer, avoid concentrating in any single name, and think of this as a multi-year holding.
What it owns
- Feeds, games, and loot boxes are variable-reward systems that monetize compulsive engagement at massive scale. · Meta PlatformsIt runs the largest variable-reward machine ever built: billions of people scrolling daily, monetized through advertising., RobloxIt runs the engagement loop for younger users, training them on variable rewards and in-game spending as they age into earning power., RedditIt hosts the speculation culture itself, with communities like wallstreetbets drawing engaged attention that monetizes through ads and data licensing., Take-Two InteractiveIt makes the biggest dopamine hits in gaming with recurring in-game spending layered on top, capturing engagement at massive scale., AppLovinIt serves as the ad engine that keeps mobile games hooked into people's pockets, taking a cut from the entire mobile attention economy.25%
- Brokers and crypto platforms earn transaction fees on every speculative trade, regardless of whether customers profit or lose. · Robinhood MarketsIt clips a toll on every options trade, crypto punt, and event contract the retail crowd makes, combining the pure fee-taking model with access to prediction markets., Coinbase GlobalIt serves as the cashier for the crypto casino, earning fees whenever people trade in cryptocurrencies regardless of price direction., Interactive BrokersIt provides the plumbing for global self-directed trading, collecting commissions and margin interest from people worldwide who want to speculate., Galaxy DigitalIt operates as the dealer desk for the crypto casino, making money trading, lending, and managing capital around digital assets.23%
- Exchanges earn more revenue the wilder markets get, selling options, futures, and event contracts to volatility seekers. · CME GroupIt collects a fee on every futures contract and provides access to event contracts as prediction markets scale., Cboe Global MarketsIt owns the VIX complex and the zero-day options boom, earning more when people chase bigger market swings and volatility seekers grow in number., Intercontinental ExchangeIt owns the NYSE and derivatives exchanges, taking a toll on every trade across its platforms regardless of winners or losers.17%
- The original house edge: floors, tables, and slot machines keep a fixed cut of every wager placed. · Las Vegas SandsIt operates the largest casino floors in Macau and Singapore, collecting the house edge directly from gaming activity in Asia., MGM ResortsIt owns the Vegas Strip house edge plus a digital betting arm, collecting from people who travel to seek thrills and spend on gaming., Caesars EntertainmentIt operates regional casinos across the country, grinding out the house edge from everyday gambling that doesn't require a Vegas trip.12%
- Energy drinks and nicotine pouches sell the stimulant layer that fuels the broader dopamine economy. · Philip Morris InternationalIt owns Zyn, the nicotine pouch that has become the stimulant of choice in offices and trading desks, driving growth in smoke-free products., Celsius HoldingsIt sells the chemical layer of the dopamine economy, capturing growth in energy drink demand and market share among consumers., Monster BeverageIt is the incumbent in energy drinks, compounding on people's daily stimulant habit as global energy drink volumes continue to rise.10%
- Concerts and destination venues sell the largest single-hit dopamine purchase most people make in person. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt has a near-lock on live concerts and ticketing, capturing the in-person dopamine spike through dominant market position and pricing power., Sphere EntertainmentIt offers the maximal version of paying for spectacle through a purpose-built venue in Vegas designed to maximize per-show economics.5%
- Cash8%