Gen Alpha Beauty Wave
Nate Legler@natelegler
+8.4%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe Gen Alpha girls are starting skincare and beauty routines years earlier than past generations, and the market hasn't fully priced in how many more years of spending that creates per customer. To capture this, I built a broad basket across four layers: the stores where they shop, the brands they love right now, the big beauty houses built to catch them early and keep them for decades, and the fragrance and ingredient suppliers that win regardless of which brand trends.
What it owns
- These large consumer companies own the everyday skincare and wellness products that this generation is adopting sooner, providing stable long-term growth. · Estée LauderIt owns The Ordinary, the skincare brand tweens reach for first, plus prestige lines they graduate into, so it captures the full lifetime value arc., UnileverIt owns Dove, Vaseline, and Paula's Choice, the affordable skincare lines that fill starter routines worldwide for younger customers., KenvueIts Neutrogena and Aveeno brands are what parents give a ten-year-old asking for skincare, making them the default on-ramp to early routines., Procter & GambleIt owns Olay, Native, and everyday skincare that forms a starter routine, providing steady growth as each cohort adds years of spending., Church & DwightIt owns Hero, the acne patch brand that became standard kit for tweens and teens starting skincare years earlier than past generations., Colgate-PalmoliveIt owns EltaMD, the sunscreen skincare-focused teens learned about from dermatologists online, riding the earlier and more serious skincare habit.32%
- These brands are building customer loyalty with this generation years earlier than in the past, which compounds over decades of spending. · e.l.f. BeautyIt is the brand this generation names most, affordable enough for allowance spending and constant on social feeds, making it the purest test of early adoption., Bath & Body WorksIt owns body sprays and lotions, the first beauty purchase many tweens make, and fragrance mists are entering this generation years earlier than the last., CotyIt owns CoverGirl, Rimmel, and licensed fragrances at drugstore prices, exactly where early starters shop if they stay with mass beauty brands., Oddity TechIt builds brands like Il Makiage that exist entirely online, where this generation discovers and buys beauty before anywhere else., WALDF26%
- These retailers benefit from earlier-starting beauty routines regardless of which brands stay in favor, as long as younger shoppers keep visiting. · Ulta BeautyIt is the store where routine-building and loyalty programs take root when shoppers start earlier, so Ulta's tween and teen traffic drives the take., WalmartIts beauty aisle is where allowance money gets spent first, so it benefits from younger, price-sensitive shoppers building routines., AmazonIt is the restock button for repeat purchases once a routine is established, so beauty replenishment shifts to its platform as these shoppers age., Sally Beauty HoldingsIt is the budget specialist where young shoppers experiment with hair and beauty before real paychecks, so it depends on traffic from earlier starters.23%
- These suppliers and licensors benefit from rising fragrance and beauty demand across the generation, independent of which individual brand leads. · International Flavors & FragrancesIt supplies the scents and ingredients inside beauty products, so it wins regardless of which brand this generation prefers, as long as volumes rise., Inter ParfumsIt makes licensed fragrances for the brands teens want most, and fragrance is the category this generation adopted earliest and loudest.10%
- Cash9%