Kardashev Supply Chain
Benjamin Rieder@benjrieder
· 1
−9.9%
since Oct 6
The idea
I believe getting real value from AI requires humanity actually expanding its energy use beyond one planet, and betting that entirely on SpaceX feels too narrow. So instead of picking a winning launcher, I own the picks and shovels across the whole supply chain: propulsion components, radiation-hardened electronics, specialty alloys, power systems, and ground infrastructure, spread across five layers.
What it owns
- These companies sell avionics, actuators, and electronics to every rocket and satellite builder, so they win regardless of which launcher dominates. · HEICO CorporationIt sells replacement parts and subcomponents into nearly every aerospace program, so it earns from whoever wins orbit rather than one launcher., Teledyne TechnologiesIt builds the imaging sensors and instruments that go on satellites and probes regardless of who launches them., Moog Inc.It makes the actuators that steer rockets and point spacecraft, a component nearly every program buys rather than builds., Curtiss-WrightIt supplies ruggedized electronics and flight systems that survive launch and vacuum, sold across many programs at once., Kratos Defense & SecurityIt builds small rocket engines and the ground systems that talk to satellites, selling to many programs rather than running its own., Mercury SystemsIt makes radiation-hardened processors, the computing that keeps working in orbit where normal chips fail.31%
- Scaling energy use beyond the planet means building and powering infrastructure in orbit, which is what these companies do. · BWX TechnologiesIt is the lead builder of nuclear reactors for space, the kind of power needed if energy use is going to expand beyond the planet., RedwireIt makes solar arrays, structures, and in-space manufacturing systems, the early version of building things in orbit instead of just sending them., Intuitive MachinesIt builds lunar landers and the services around them, infrastructure for using resources beyond Earth., Voyager TechnologiesIt is building a commercial space station, a permanent place to live and work off-planet and a direct step on the path to planetary scale.18%
- Public launchers and propulsion suppliers that give everyone besides SpaceX a ride to orbit. · Rocket LabIt is the clearest non-SpaceX merchant launcher and also sells spacecraft components to competitors, fitting a diversified path to scale., Karman HoldingsIt makes payload fairings, interstages, and structures sold into most US launch vehicles, exactly the tier two layer that wins as launch cadence rises., DucommunIt builds structural assemblies for launch vehicles and spacecraft across many primes, a quiet way to own rising launch volume., Firefly AerospaceIt is a merchant launcher and lunar lander builder offering a real alternative to dominant players as launch volume grows.17%
- Every engine and spacecraft starts with high-temperature alloys and forged parts, a bottleneck few companies can supply. · ATI Inc.It makes the high-temperature alloys that rocket engines and spacecraft cannot be built without, a supply bottleneck every program shares., Carpenter TechnologyIt makes the specialty metals that go into engines and airframes across the whole industry, so it gets paid whichever launcher wins., Howmet AerospaceIt forges the engine parts that almost no one else can make at scale, a chokepoint in the supply chain to orbit.13%
- US-listed foreign names and ground infrastructure keep this basket from being a pure bet on the American space program alone. · Gilat Satellite NetworksIt is an Israeli maker of satellite ground terminals, providing an international angle so the bet is not only on the US reaching scale., SatellogicIt builds and operates Earth-imaging satellites out of Latin America, a non-US piece so the take does not assume America alone brings scale., TelesatIt is Canada's satellite operator building a constellation, a non-US path to orbit infrastructure.10%
- Companies positioned to lead in space infrastructure and launch services. · It operates a reusable rocket system that could dominate commercial space launch if it achieves full operational capability at scale.10%
- Cash1%