Safer World Dividend
Linas@true
+3.8%
since Sep 29
The idea
I believe violent crime falls substantially worldwide over the next decade, and I want the beneficiaries regardless of what drives the drop. The basket splits evenly between Latin American and emerging market names, airport operators, consumer platforms, and banks, and US-side plays like urban real estate, global travel brands, insurers, and city nightlife companies. I spread it across many holdings rather than betting on one, keep a small cash buffer, and hold with a multi-year horizon since this is a structural bet, not a short-term trade.
What it owns
- Airports and airlines throughout Latin America capture growing traffic as tourists and business travelers return to regions where safety concerns had suppressed demand. · Grupo Aeroportuario del SuresteIt operates airports serving Cancun and southeast Mexico, collecting fees from every passenger as safety improvements encourage travelers to return to destinations they previously avoided., Copa HoldingsIt connects the Americas through Panama as a regional hub, benefiting when safer conditions encourage more business travel, family visits, and regional commerce suppressed by crime concerns., Grupo Aeroportuario del PacificoIt operates Pacific Mexico airports including Guadalajara and coastal cities where safety fears have limited passenger growth, benefiting as those concerns fade.28%
- Safer streets in emerging markets drive more commerce, shopping trips, and consumer lending in cities where economic activity had been constrained by crime. · MercadoLibreThis commerce and payments platform across Latin America grows when regional economies strengthen and safer conditions let couriers reach neighborhoods and customers previously avoided due to crime., Fomento Economico MexicanoIts corner stores across Mexico face lower theft and security costs while attracting more foot traffic when cities get safer, improving store operations and margins.21%
- Booking platforms, home rentals, and cruise lines sell more trips when fewer destinations are avoided due to crime concerns, unlocking demand in formerly feared regions. · Booking HoldingsIt sells travel globally, capturing growth as crime reduction opens previously feared destinations to bookings and makes more regions attractive to travelers., AirbnbIt thrives when neighborhoods become safe enough for travelers to book local homes instead of isolated hotels, unlocking demand in cities crime had made less attractive., Royal Caribbean GroupIts Caribbean and Latin American routes depend on port safety, generating more bookings and itineraries as safer conditions increase the number of destinations worth visiting.21%
- Lower violent crime reduces theft, property damage, and liability claims, allowing insurers to collect existing premiums with fewer payouts and wider profit margins. · ChubbIt insures property and people worldwide, converting existing premiums to profit as crime reduction cuts theft, damage, and liability claims across its portfolio., AllstateIt pays claims on car theft, break-ins, and property crime across the US, improving margins when falling violent crime reduces theft and vandalism losses., TravelersIt writes commercial property insurance where businesses in safer cities file fewer theft and vandalism claims, improving loss ratios in its commercial book.15%
- Apartments and retail properties in major US cities become more valuable as safer conditions make urban living more desirable and drive higher occupancy and rents. · Simon Property GroupIt owns malls and retail centers where foot traffic and occupancy improve as safer cities make people more willing to spend time shopping in person.5%
- Concerts, late-night entertainment, and after-hours mobility see increased demand when people feel safe going out at night in their cities. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt sells concerts and live entertainment, the first category people increase when they no longer worry about being out late in their cities., Uber TechnologiesIt moves people around cities at all hours, growing ride volumes as safer streets encourage more late-night trips, driver participation, and service expansion in vulnerable markets.5%
- Cash5%