Everyone Becomes a Trader
joseph@shaddam
· 1
−2.8%
since Oct 6
The idea
I believe the retail investor cohort is about to grow massively worldwide, as AI makes financial education more accessible and a younger generation shut out of houses and cheap college turns to markets, increasingly with leverage. Rather than pick winning traders, this take owns the toll collectors on that activity: brokers racing to offer leverage, exchanges where options and futures volume compounds, crypto venues where leverage is native and global, and firms onboarding retail flow across Asia and Latin America.
What it owns
- Apps where new retail traders open accounts are racing to offer leverage and crypto products to stay competitive as younger users demand bigger swings. · Robinhood MarketsIt rolls out leverage trading and crypto products to younger users seeking bigger swings, placing it at the center of retail's shift toward leveraged investing., Interactive BrokersIt earns from margin lending itself, not just trading fees, so it benefits directly as retail gravitates toward leverage and borrows to trade globally., Charles SchwabIt sits where the broad middle of retail already trades, so growth in accounts and activity flows directly to it as everyone becomes a trader., eToro GroupIt is the social trading app for retail investors outside the US with leveraged products built in, growing as the cohort expands internationally., WebullIt is an upstart chasing young global traders with options and margin built in from the start, competing on leverage as brokers have no choice but to offer it.26%
- Leverage is native and global in crypto, so adoption likely runs fastest at regulated venues offering derivatives to retail traders worldwide. · Coinbase GlobalIt is the regulated US venue positioned to offer leveraged crypto trading and derivatives products to retail traders legally as adoption accelerates., BitcoinIt is the asset a global retail cohort reaches for first as a reserve and leveraged position, so demand for it grows with retail adoption worldwide., EthereumIt is where crypto's native leverage settles through lending, derivatives, and stablecoins, so fees rise as retail leverage trading accelerates., SolanaIt is the fast, cheap chain where retail crypto trading actually happens day to day as leverage trading on crypto grows globally., Galaxy DigitalIt builds and runs the trading and lending infrastructure behind crypto markets, earning as crypto activity scales regardless of which venue retail picks.23%
- Every options and futures trade retail makes pays a fee to the venue that hosts it, creating a direct tie between retail trading activity and exchange revenue. · CME GroupIt hosts futures trading including micro-sized contracts built for retail, capturing fees as leverage becomes native to how young traders operate., Cboe Global MarketsIt collects a fee on options volume, and options are how most US retail takes leveraged bets today as that activity compounds., NasdaqIt lists and trades the stocks retail loves most, so a swelling retail cohort means more volume through its exchanges and higher data and listing revenue., Intercontinental ExchangeIt owns the NYSE plus a sprawl of futures and derivatives venues, operating as a broad toll collector on the trading boom across all its platforms.21%
- Market makers earn from retail order flow, and brokers in Asia and Latin America are capturing the same wave of new young traders as the US. · Nu HoldingsIt serves tens of millions of young Latin Americans moving from banking into investing and trading, converting its base into the cohort the take describes., Futu HoldingsIt onboards young retail investors across Asia and earns from trading activity and margin lending as that cohort reaches for leverage., Virtu FinancialIt earns from retail order flow itself regardless of who wins or loses, making it a pure play on the growth of retail trading volume globally., XP IncIt collects directly as Brazilians move savings into markets and trading, placing it at the center of retail adoption in Latin America.20%
- Cash10%