The Post-Smartphone Bet
Ankur Bagchi@ankurbagchi
−8.5%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe the smartphone gets replaced over the next two decades by AR glasses and eventually brain-computer interfaces, and rather than guess which device wins, I want exposure to the parts every version of that future needs. So the core sits in optics, low-power silicon, sensors and the manufacturing backbone, with platform giants as steadier ballast and a thin slice in publicly traded neurotech as the closest proxy for the implant frontier. No single name dominates, a portion stays in cash, and this is built to be held for years, not traded on quarterly news.
What it owns
- Glasses worn all day need chips that consume minimal power, and a handful of companies design and build them. · QualcommIts Snapdragon XR chips power most headsets and smart glasses shipping today, positioning it as a default choice if glasses replace phones., Taiwan SemiconductorManufactures chips for most advanced consumer devices, making it the safest way to own the semiconductor side of this shift., Lattice SemiconductorIts tiny low-power FPGAs already sit in wearables and edge devices, solving the power consumption challenge all-day glasses face., AmbarellaIts edge vision chips let AR glasses see and understand the world using almost no battery, a core requirement for all-day devices., SynapticsSupplies low-power wireless and touch chips that connect wearables to other devices, a necessary piece of any glasses future.24%
- Every pair of AR glasses needs lenses, waveguides and tiny displays, regardless of who ends up selling the finished product. · Coherent Corp.Supplies precision optics and photonics that every AR headset requires, regardless of which manufacturer wins the category., Lumentum HoldingsMakes the lasers and sensing parts that let glasses map rooms and track eyes and hands, core to how AR glasses work., Himax TechnologiesSupplies display driver chips and microdisplays already appearing in early AR glasses prototypes., Kopin CorporationDoes almost nothing but microdisplays, making it a direct bet that tiny high-resolution screens for glasses become mass market., Vuzix CorporationSells actual AR glasses and licenses waveguide optics, making it a pure bet on whether the category itself takes off.21%
- The giants most likely to own the winning device, providing steadier holdings across a twenty-year timeline. · Meta PlatformsSpending more than any other company to develop glasses as the next device, from smart glasses to full AR prototypes., AppleOwns the smartphone being replaced and already sells more wearables than anyone, so it will likely fight to own what comes next., AlphabetBuilding Android XR to own the operating system layer of glasses the way it owns Android on phones.18%
- A device worn on the face has to see, hear and feel what the wearer does, which requires precision sensors and microphones. · STMicroelectronicsIts MEMS motion sensors are the standard part for tracking head movement in wearable devices., Knowles CorporationMakes the tiny microphones that enable voice input, likely the primary control method if glasses replace phones., Cirrus LogicMakes audio and haptics chips that handle sound and touch feedback in small devices, mostly powering Apple products today.11%
- The closest publicly traded companies to brain-interface technology, kept small because the purest players remain private. · MedtronicHas the largest existing business putting electrodes in human brains through neurostimulation, giving it regulatory track record for brain interfaces., Abbott LaboratoriesRuns a large neuromodulation business with neural implant technology, providing a profitable anchor for the brain-interface side., NeuroPaceAlready has an FDA-approved implant that reads and responds to brain signals, making it one of the few public companies in brain-computer interfaces.10%
- Specialty glass and advanced fabrication equipment underpin all of these components, regardless of which devices ship. · CorningAlready makes cover glass for phones and specialty glass waveguides, likely to supply lenses and optics for the winning glasses., Applied MaterialsSells the factory equipment that builds microdisplays and advanced chips, making it the manufacturing backbone of this transition.8%
- Cash8%