Best and Weird Barbell
Andrew J.@andrew
+1.6%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe AI hollows out the average and pushes value to two extremes: the undisputed best and the truly irreplaceable. So this basket barbells it, roughly half in the companies that own the compute, models, and machines AI scales on, and half split across cult brands, physical assets AI can't route around, and unique data and IP it can't recreate. I keep a small cash reserve to add on weakness and hold with a decade-scale view, no single name dominating either side.
What it owns
- Winner-take-all companies whose core products become more valuable as AI scales, because they own the infrastructure, models, or distribution that others must rely on. · NVIDIAThe chips and software that train and run nearly all advanced AI models globally, making it the default compute layer that scales with the entire industry., Taiwan SemiconductorNearly every advanced AI chip manufactured globally gets made at its foundries, making it the manufacturing bottleneck that strengthens as the industry scales., AlphabetControls models, proprietary chips, massive training data, and search and video distribution, betting that owning the entire stack beats being best at any single layer., MicrosoftDistributes AI to businesses through Azure and Office, capturing value by putting generative models in front of customers that already pay for its platform., ASML HoldingThe only manufacturer of the extreme ultraviolet machines that make advanced chips, placing it at the foundation of all modern semiconductor production., AmazonAWS hosts a majority of AI workloads while its logistics network becomes more efficient at scale, creating a physical and software moat that AI makes stronger, not weaker., Meta PlatformsPairs billions of hours of human attention with AI that continuously improves ad targeting, capturing value as machine learning makes its advertising more effective.47%
- One-of-a-kind datasets, standards, and catalogs that AI models need as inputs but cannot recreate, because their value comes from universal adoption or irreplaceable historical records. · S&P GlobalCredit ratings and indices are data and intellectual property that every financial system depends on, with value rooted in universal adoption rather than novel math., Fair IsaacThe FICO score is standardized intellectual property embedded in all lending infrastructure, with value determined by universal adoption rather than mathematical superiority., Warner Music GroupA recorded music catalog is proprietary intellectual property that AI can imitate but never own, and licensing to AI companies creates a new revenue stream on top of streaming., CME GroupThe global exchange for rate and commodity futures has a network effect that strengthens as machines trade more volume, because all participants must use its contracts to hedge., Verisk AnalyticsHolds decades of insurance claims data from the entire industry, creating a dataset that AI models require but cannot rebuild from scratch, as insurers continuously feed it new information.18%
- Real infrastructure, land, and natural resources that took decades or centuries to build and cannot be routed around by software, whose efficiency improves when paired with AI. · Union PacificOwns a transcontinental rail network built over a century that cannot be replicated or bypassed by software, growing more valuable as AI optimizes its operations., Martin Marietta MaterialsQuarries near growing cities are geographically fixed monopolies, because rock is too heavy to transport long distances and new permits cannot be obtained., Waste ManagementExisting landfills near cities are legally irreplaceable, with pricing power protected by permitting scarcity and environmental regulation rather than by cost alone., Texas Pacific LandOwns land and water rights in the Permian Basin that cannot be recreated, generating royalty income from both oil drilling and emerging data center demand.17%
- Human experiences and deliberately scarce offerings that command premium prices precisely because they are live, limited, and impossible for AI to replicate or mass-produce. · FerrariDeliberately limits production to maintain scarcity and exclusivity, commanding premium prices from customers who value the brand precisely because it remains inaccessible., TKO GroupUFC and WWE are live human spectacle and athletic competition that cannot be faked, becoming more valuable as generated content floods digital media., Live Nation EntertainmentControls access to live concerts and experiences where real artists perform in front of real audiences, something no artificial model can synthesize or replace.13%
- Cash5%