−9.0%
since Oct 10
The idea
I don't think any single AI lab wins the whole stack, so instead of betting on a model winner, I'm buying the toll roads: neutral infrastructure like Cloudflare, MongoDB, and Datadog that get paid regardless of which model is on top, plus the rails agents need to transact and verify identity, like Visa, Coinbase, and Okta. I've spread chip exposure across AMD, Broadcom, Arm, and Qualcomm since architecture is still unsettled, added app layer names adapting to agents, and kept a cash cushion. The idea falls apart if one lab ends up owning the entire stack top to bottom.
What it owns
- These positions handle the infrastructure that AI applications need regardless of which model provider or technology wins. · CloudflareIt sits between users and model providers, collecting fees on AI traffic regardless of which lab wins, and its AI gateway and Workers products enable inference at the edge., MongoDBIt provides the document model and vector search that developers use by default when building AI applications, regardless of which model they call., DatadogIt collects fees for monitoring AI workloads in production, and its growth depends on AI showing up as an expanding share of customer usage., ElasticIt provides the search and vector tools that retrieve relevant documents before models answer, and maintains position against dedicated startups and cloud providers' built-in options., TwilioIt owns the messaging and voice rails plus customer data that agents need to reach people, and growth depends on AI-driven volume showing up rather than bypassing it.30%
- These positions capture the payment and identity layers that emerge when autonomous agents transact with each other or on behalf of people. · CoinbaseAutonomous agents that pay each other need rails without human bank accounts, and it captures agent-driven payment flows through its infrastructure and stablecoin ecosystem., OktaIt verifies agent identity and permissions when agents act on someone's behalf, making agent identity management a real product category with recurring revenue., VisaIt hedges the transactions bucket by winning if agent commerce grows on existing card rails and agent-specific payment credentials gain adoption., CircleIts USDC stablecoin is the leading regulated option for machine-to-machine payments that settle instantly without intermediaries, and growth depends on circulation expanding.24%
- These positions bet that AI compute buyers diversify away from single vendors and that custom silicon becomes standard across hyperscalers. · Advanced Micro DevicesIt is the direct bet that major inference buyers commit real money to MI-series chips as a Nvidia alternative rather than accepting single-vendor dependence., BroadcomIt builds custom AI chips and networking for hyperscalers that want their own silicon, and maintains position as long as custom chip programs keep expanding., Arm HoldingsIt collects royalties on chip diversity itself by licensing designs to every builder of custom AI silicon, from hyperscalers to device makers., QualcommIt is the bet that significant inference moves onto phones and laptops where no lab controls the chip, and holds if on-device AI becomes a reason for hardware upgrades.22%
- These positions serve the companies and use cases where agents are already doing real work or will soon do it. · SnowflakeIt lets companies run any model against their own data without shipping it elsewhere, and growth depends on AI products driving real consumption., ShopifyIt provides the structured product data and machine-readable checkout that shopping agents need, and maintains position if it stays the default place agents transact with independent merchants., GitLabIt provides the pipeline where code gets reviewed, secured, and deployed, making this infrastructure layer essential if agents generate a larger share of code production.14%
- Cash10%