AI Bubble Crash Shelter
+5.0%
since Oct 3
The idea
I think AI is a bubble and that when it bursts, it drags the broader market down with it, so this basket stays invested but leans into the places a selloff tends to spare: everyday staples, discount retailers, defensive healthcare, and insurers, backed by gold and treasuries as ballast. Every holding was screened out of hidden AI exposure, no data-center or AI-capex names. It holds a 20% cash reserve, not to time the top but to have dry powder ready to buy quality once the wreckage is cheap.
What it owns
- Gold and treasuries are where capital typically flows during broad market selloffs, cushioning the take when risk appetite disappears. · SPDR Gold SharesHolds physical gold, which typically gains value or holds steady when investors flee risk across equity markets., iShares 1-3 Year Treasury ETFIt holds short-term treasuries that experience minimal price volatility and generate consistent interest income, making it a reliable reserve of dry powder., iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETFMedium-term treasuries historically rise in price when equities fall sharply, offsetting losses elsewhere in the take.23%
- Discounters and insurers tend to gain business when consumers trade down and fear spreads, turning a crash into an opportunity. · WalmartBenefits when consumers trade down to discount retail during economic stress, potentially gaining sales volume as wallets tighten., Dollar GeneralServes price-conscious shoppers who shift spending to its stores when economic conditions weaken., Dollar TreeOperates an extreme discount retail model that attracts shoppers during recessions when consumers cut spending., TJX CompaniesOff-price retail format gains customers when shoppers hunt for deals and competitors need to clear excess inventory during downturns., ProgressiveCollects auto insurance premiums in all economic environments, generating steady income regardless of market performance.19%
- Essential products that households replenish regardless of economic conditions tend to hold earnings steady through broad selloffs. · Coca-ColaSells beverages that consumers purchase in both strong and weak economies, maintaining sales volume through market cycles., Procter & GambleMakes household staples that consumers buy consistently regardless of market conditions, supporting stable earnings through downturns., Colgate-PalmoliveProduces personal care basics like toothpaste that remain in household budgets even during economic stress., Kimberly-ClarkManufactures essential items like diapers and tissues that consumers purchase through all economic cycles., General MillsSells affordable packaged foods that consumers rely on more heavily when wallets tighten, maintaining volume through weakness.18%
- Medicine demand runs independently of economic cycles and market sentiment, making these holdings unlikely to suffer if AI enthusiasm fades. · Johnson & JohnsonSells essential medicines and medical devices with demand that persists regardless of economic conditions or market sentiment., MerckProduces pharmaceuticals for serious diseases that patients cannot defer, insulating revenue from economic weakness., Gilead SciencesSupplies antivirals and HIV medications for chronic conditions with steady daily demand independent of economic cycles., AbbViePays substantial dividends from daily-use pharmaceuticals whose demand is unaffected by market downturns.16%
- Steady cash generators with strong balance sheets can deploy capital to buy assets at depressed prices after a market crash. · Waste ManagementCollects garbage in all economic conditions and holds pricing power, making earnings reliable through downturns.4%
- Cash20%