The Designer Baby Arc (practice)
Josh Tucker@joshbtucker
−3.3%
since Oct 1
Practiced to +1.3% before going real.
Practice chapter: simulated results; no money was invested.
The idea
I believe genetic selection and editing for children moves from niche to normal over the next decade, starting with IVF and embryo screening and eventually gene editing once regulators catch up. Rather than bet on one winner, I own the picks and shovels: sequencing and lab tools, genetic testing labs, and fertility clinics, with a smaller slice in gene editing companies for the upside if editing goes mainstream. I keep cash on hand to add to the speculative side on dips, and I'm avoiding single-name bets since it's unclear who wins each layer.
What it owns
- Every screened or edited embryo starts with reading DNA, and these companies sell the machines and supplies regardless of which technology wins. · Thermo Fisher ScientificIt sells the everyday instruments and supplies that genetics labs burn through as they expand genetic medicine work., IlluminaNearly every embryo screen and genetic test runs on its sequencers, so it gets paid whether screening or editing wins., DanaherIt supplies the manufacturing and diagnostics gear behind gene therapies and genetic tests, profiting now while the taboo fades., QiagenBefore any embryo or gene gets read, DNA has to be extracted and prepped, and its kits are the standard for that step., Agilent TechnologiesIts instruments and quality-control tools sit in the same labs that will do more genetic work as choosing genes goes mainstream., 10x GenomicsIt sells the single-cell tools researchers use to figure out what genes actually do, the research layer that has to advance before editing embryos is on the table., Pacific BiosciencesIts long-read machines see parts of the genome short reads miss, which matters more as embryo screening gets more thorough.39%
- Testing embryos and pregnancies for genetic traits is the part of this future that is already legal and already selling. · NateraIt dominates prenatal genetic tests parents already order today, proof the taboo is fading before editing even arrives., Myriad GeneticsIt provides the carrier screening tests that identify genetic risks before pregnancy, positioning it to benefit as genetic testing becomes standard practice in family planning., RevvityIt runs newborn screening at scale, the normalized end of the pipeline that shows society already accepts checking babies' genes., Fulgent GeneticsIt is a lab that makes money running genetic tests of all kinds, so it rides rising test volume without needing to win any one market.21%
- Designer babies begin with IVF, so the clinics, equipment makers, and benefits plans grow first as screening goes mainstream. · ProgynyIt is how IVF gets normal as employers add fertility benefits, bringing more people through clinics where embryo screening happens on each cycle., CooperCompaniesIt owns CooperSurgical, which sells the media, tools, and genetic testing that IVF clinics use on every cycle.15%
- The small, high-risk slice that pays off big if editing human genes becomes accepted medicine. · CRISPR TherapeuticsIt already has an approved gene-editing medicine, the first proof that regulators will say yes to editing humans., Intellia TherapeuticsIt edits genes inside the body rather than in a dish, the technical step change the endgame needs., Prime MedicineIt has the most flexible editing technology and the least proof, an early-stage bet that only pays if editing goes fully mainstream.12%
- Cash13%