−2.1%
since Sep 3
The idea
My view is that markets start repricing political risk the moment the odds shift, not when laws actually pass, so I want to be positioned before 2028 rather than after. Most of the portfolio sits in hedges: gold and silver in a few forms, inflation protected bonds and broad commodities, non-US stocks across Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, and bitcoin as a fast exit valve. A smaller slice bets directly on infrastructure and clean energy as the sectors that would benefit if the shift actually happens.
What it owns
- Non-US assets can outperform when capital rotates away from US political risk toward developed and emerging markets elsewhere. · Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFEuropean stocks can outperform when capital rotates away from US political risk toward developed markets outside the US., iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETFEmerging markets tend to benefit from a weaker dollar, which heavy US deficit spending and capital flight would likely produce., iShares MSCI Japan ETFJapanese stocks offer developed-market stability outside US politics, and the yen historically strengthens when investors grow nervous about the US.26%
- Precious metals tend to rise when investors worry about deficit spending, currency debasement, or political instability in the US. · SPDR Gold SharesGold tends to rise when investors fear deficit spending, currency debasement, or US political instability., VanEck Gold Miners ETFGold miners amplify the price moves of gold itself, so they rise harder when precious metals rally on monetary and political fears., iShares Silver TrustSilver rides the same monetary-fear trade as gold while also benefiting from industrial demand in solar and electrification., Franco-Nevada CorporationIt collects royalties on gold production from other companies, so it captures upside from higher gold prices without owning mining operations.25%
- Companies and sectors that directly benefit from government spending on infrastructure, clean energy, and the energy transition. · Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETFUS infrastructure builders and materials companies directly benefit from government spending on public works and construction., NextEra EnergyIt is the largest US renewables developer wrapped in a regulated utility, so it gains from green policy while offering dividend income., First SolarIt makes American-manufactured solar panels that tax credits and domestic-content rules favor in US policy., iShares Global Clean Energy ETFIt diversifies exposure to the global green energy transition without picking individual company winners across multiple countries.19%
- Assets that benefit from higher inflation expectations or commodity price strength tend to perform when fiscal spending drives price pressures. · iShares TIPS Bond ETFIt adjusts principal for inflation, so it pays off when deficit spending pushes inflation expectations higher than the market currently prices., Invesco DB Commodity Index FundIt holds energy, metals, and agriculture, which historically perform well when deficit spending and inflation run higher.13%
- Other · ETH10%
- Stores of value that appeal to holders seeking assets outside traditional financial systems during periods of political or fiscal uncertainty. · iShares Bitcoin TrustIt serves as an escape hatch if wealthy holders move assets away from reach of a redistributionist fiscal agenda or capital controls.7%