Second-Order Autonomy World
Miles Beckett@mbeckett
−3.2%
since Oct 1
The idea
I'm not betting on which company wins self-driving, I'm betting on what changes once autonomy is everywhere: cheaper freight, more screen time in the cabin, sprawl as miles get cheap, and every fleet needing the same sensors, compute, and power. So the basket spreads across those layers, with large-cap ballast plus smaller asymmetric bets like autonomous trucking and lidar. I'm keeping 8% cash to add if things sell off, and holding for years since this plays out over a decade.
What it owns
- Every autonomous vehicle needs the same chips, sensors and mapping regardless of which carmaker wins. · NvidiaIt sells the compute that most autonomous programs train and run on, regardless of whose vehicle badge is on the road., Taiwan SemiconductorIt manufactures the silicon for whoever wins the autonomy chip race, collecting payment regardless of badge., Mobileye GlobalIt is the off-the-shelf autonomy supplier that legacy automakers buy instead of building systems in-house., onsemiIt makes the image sensors that autonomous vehicles use in their camera arrays, and more autonomous cars mean more sensors per vehicle., TrimbleIt supplies the precision positioning and mapping systems that allow autonomous vehicles to know their location down to the centimeter., Hesai GroupIt ships more lidar units than any competitor, and lidar remains the standard sensor for most autonomous fleets outside Tesla's network.33%
- Robotaxi networks and driverless trucking collapse the cost of moving people and packages, and the platforms running the fleets collect the difference. · Uber TechnologiesIt is the biggest network that robotaxi fleets need to fill their seats in a driverless world., Amazon.comIt runs one of the world's largest delivery operations, so falling cost per autonomous mile drops straight into margins and enables faster delivery., Aurora InnovationIt is a pure play on driverless long-haul trucking as the asymmetric bet on cheaper freight networks with paying customers., LyftIt is the second marketplace that autonomous fleets can plug into to find demand at an affordable price.24%
- When nobody has to drive, time in the car turns into time watching, listening and scrolling. · NetflixIt captures the freed-up attention when hours people spend driving turn into hours they can watch video instead., QualcommIt supplies the cockpit chips that run dashboards and displays when cabins transform from steering wheels into screens., Spotify TechnologyIt captures in-car listening hours that expand when autonomous vehicles free drivers from the road.16%
- When a long commute is a nap or a movie, homes further from the city get more valuable and builders sell more of them. · D.R. HortonIt builds the affordable homes at the edge of metro areas where people relocate when commuting costs fall., LennarIt is the second large builder capitalizing on exurban housing demand as cheaper autonomous travel makes distant commutes viable.10%
- Always-on electric fleets need charging, grid equipment and batteries at a scale personal cars never did. · EatonIt supplies the electrical equipment for charging depots and grid upgrades that millions of electric autonomous vehicles demand., AlbemarleIt mines the lithium that goes into every battery powering autonomous electric vehicles at the raw-material end of the take.9%
- Cash8%