Inland Shift: Homes Away From Floods
Tim Devane@tdevane
The idea
I believe coastal flood and storm losses keep rising until insurance for those areas gets too expensive or disappears, pushing buyers, renters and businesses toward safer inland markets in the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Mountain regions. This owns the companies positioned to benefit from that shift: inland homebuilders, rental-home and apartment landlords, inland warehouse owners and factory-built housing, spread across many names rather than concentrated in one or two. It deliberately avoids heavy Florida and Gulf Coast exposure and keeps a small cash cushion.
What it owns
- These companies build new homes mostly in inland markets where buyers can still obtain insurance and mortgages. · NVR, Inc.It builds homes around Washington DC, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Ohio, markets where buyers can still obtain insurance and financing., M/I Homes, Inc.Based in Columbus, it builds homes in Midwest markets like Ohio, Indiana and Minnesota where buyers seek affordable, insurable alternatives to the coast., Century Communities, Inc.Based in Colorado, it builds homes across Mountain West and inland Southeast markets where buyers can still obtain insurance and mortgages., Green Brick Partners, Inc.It builds mainly in Dallas and Atlanta, inland metros positioned to attract buyers seeking insurable alternatives to coastal homes., Smith Douglas Homes Corp.It builds entry-level homes in inland Southeast cities including Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh and Nashville for families relocating from the coast.34%
- Warehouse landlords in inland markets benefit as businesses relocate operations to regions where insurance costs less. · STAG Industrial, Inc.It owns single-tenant warehouses across the Midwest and other inland markets where businesses relocate to reduce storm and flood risk., First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.It owns warehouses in major US distribution hubs with significant exposure to Midwest and Central US locations where businesses establish inland operations.15%
- These landlords collect rent from single-family and manufactured-home communities in inland areas as people relocate away from costly coastal insurance. · American Homes 4 RentIt owns rental houses across inland metros like Atlanta, Charlotte, Indianapolis and Nashville where people relocate to escape coastal insurance costs., UMH Properties, Inc.It owns manufactured home communities in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and nearby states, providing affordable housing far from hurricane and flood zones.15%
- Apartment owners in Midwest and inland cities gain renters as coastal housing becomes more expensive to insure. · Independence Realty Trust, Inc.It owns apartments in inland cities including Indianapolis, Columbus, Atlanta and Memphis where renters migrate as coastal living becomes more expensive., CenterspaceIt owns apartments in Minneapolis, Denver, Omaha and North Dakota, Upper Midwest and Mountain markets insulated from coastal flood risk.14%
- Factory-built homes sold mostly in inland and rural areas provide affordable options for buyers priced out of traditional insured housing. · Cavco Industries, Inc.It manufactures factory-built homes that offer affordable ownership for people leaving expensive, hard-to-insure coastal regions for inland towns., Champion Homes, Inc.It manufactures modular and manufactured homes with plants across the country positioned to supply affordable housing in inland markets., Legacy Housing CorporationIt manufactures factory-built homes sold mostly across the inland South, providing low-cost housing for people priced out of insurable coastal markets.14%
- Cash8%