The Vanity Economy
Regynald@regynald
−1.8%
since Oct 16
The idea
I believe that as AI makes raw intelligence cheap, the in-person human advantages, looks and charm, become more valuable, and spending already reflects that shift. This take owns the whole vanity economy rather than betting on one layer: GLP-1 drugs, injectables and aesthetics, beauty and grooming brands, dating and social platforms, and fitness businesses, with the weight in steadier compounders and smaller stakes in punchier names.
What it owns
- Weight-loss drugs are reshaping how people look and funding everything else in this take. · Eli LillyZepbound and Mounjaro are the primary engine of body-reshaping spending, holding a duopoly position in GLP-1 supply., Novo NordiskOwns Ozempic and Wegovy, sharing the GLP-1 duopoly with Lilly and able to win as long as the obesity-drug market keeps expanding., Hims & Hers HealthThe storefront for mass-market weight loss, hair and skin treatments delivered through telehealth without office visits, riding the spread from early adopters to everyone., Viking TherapeuticsA next-generation obesity drug that could prove more effective or easier to use than current options, representing the riskiest slice of the GLP-1 layer.23%
- The everyday vanity spending that grows as looking good becomes a career asset for everyone. · e.l.f. BeautyTakes shelf space and social attention from older beauty brands at prices younger consumers can afford, gaining market share in daily vanity spending., Ulta BeautyCollects a cut from nearly every beauty trend without betting on individual brand winners, positioning it to benefit from the entire category's growth., Oddity TechBuilds beauty brands with AI-driven matching and online selling, pointed at vanity spending without physical stores., Estée LauderThe prestige beauty name beaten down and positioned to recover if high-end skincare and makeup spending grows as expected, especially needing a China turnaround.21%
- After weight loss comes the spending on faces, skin and body contouring at medical spas and clinics. · AbbVieOwns Botox and Juvederm, the most famous injectables people turn to after weight loss reshapes their faces., InModeSupplies the skin-tightening and body-contouring machines that medspas run daily, making it a direct play on medspa visit growth., EvolusTakes injectables share from Botox with Jeuveau, targeting younger and price-sensitive customers entering the aesthetic market., Establishment LabsMakes breast implants and body-shaping products for people finishing the transformation that weight-loss drugs start, dependent on elective surgery volume growth.18%
- The platforms where appearance converts directly into attention, connections and monetization. · Meta PlatformsInstagram is the arena where looks get shown off and monetized, concentrating the beauty and fitness culture this take depends on., Match GroupOwns Tinder and Hinge, where charm and appearance convert directly into outcomes, requiring paying users to stabilize and grow., BumbleIt trades at a lower valuation than larger competitors, so a rebound in user engagement and revenue growth would amplify gains relative to the category.16%
- Gyms and athletic brands where people build and display the body they are investing in. · Planet FitnessThe mass-market entry point where people build the raw material at accessible prices, growing as vanity spending spreads beyond early adopters., Life Time GroupThe premium fitness destination where people pay for clubs that combine working out with looking good, dependent on membership and spending growth., LululemonSells the clothes people buy to show off the body the rest of this basket helped build, dependent on pricing power and international growth.15%
- Cash7%