−6.4%
since Oct 9
The idea
I don't think any single AI lab wins the whole stack, so instead of betting on OpenAI versus Anthropic versus Google, I own the layers that get paid no matter who's ahead: neutral infrastructure like Cloudflare, MongoDB, and Datadog, the rails agents need to transact and verify identity like Visa, Coinbase, and Okta, diversified chipmakers including AMD, Broadcom, and Arm, and application companies rebuilding around agents like Shopify and Snowflake. I keep a small cash buffer and spread bets across many names rather than concentrating in one.
What it owns
- These companies provide infrastructure that AI applications need regardless of which model provider or approach wins, collecting revenue on the underlying traffic or data flows. · CloudflareIt sits between users and model providers on AI traffic, so it gets paid regardless of which lab wins, as long as its gateway and edge products keep growing with inference., MongoDBIts document model and vector search capabilities make it a natural default for developers building AI applications, regardless of which model they call., DatadogEvery company running AI in production needs monitoring, and it collects fees for that regardless of which model is underneath the workload., ElasticMost useful AI apps retrieve relevant documents before the model answers, and it owns that retrieval step for any model., TwilioThe take's growth depends on AI-driven message and voice volume flowing through its rails rather than bypassing them through alternative channels.30%
- These companies enable the payment and identity systems that autonomous agents need to transact with each other and on behalf of people. · CoinbaseIt provides the infrastructure for autonomous agents to transact with each other using crypto rails that don't require human bank accounts or intermediaries., OktaIt provides the identity verification and permission management that agents need to act on people's behalf in a trusted way., CircleIts USDC stablecoin settles instantly without a bank in the loop, making it the most plausible money for machine-to-machine payments., VisaIt is the hedge on traditional payment rails, winning if agents pay with regular money over card networks instead of stablecoins.24%
- These companies benefit from buyers refusing to depend on a single chip vendor, either by selling alternative chips or by collecting royalties across the chip ecosystem. · Advanced Micro DevicesIt is the most direct bet that large inference buyers commit real money to its MI-series chips as an alternative to a single vendor., BroadcomIt builds custom AI chips for companies wanting their own silicon and the networking to tie clusters together, benefiting from hyperscaler custom chip expansion., Arm HoldingsIt licenses chip designs to nearly everyone building AI silicon, collecting royalties on the diversity itself regardless of which vendor wins., QualcommIt is the bet that a lot of inference moves onto phones and laptops where no lab controls the chip, benefiting from on-device AI becoming a real reason for hardware upgrades.22%
- These companies are building products and platforms where agents are already doing meaningful work or where they will transact with customers at scale. · SnowflakeIt lets companies run AI against their own data without shipping it to a model lab, bringing any model to the data instead of the other way around., ShopifyIt provides structured product data and machine-readable checkout for independent merchants, positioning itself as the default place agents transact outside the labs' own platforms., GitLabCode is where agents are already doing real work, and it provides the pipeline around code review, security and deployment that matters more when agents write more of it.14%
- Cash10%