GLP-1 Second-Order Winners
Avy@avy
The idea
I believe GLP-1 drugs are going mainstream and the second-order effects are still underpriced. As people eat less, I want exposure to the winners: the injection supply chain and drugmakers, protein and healthy food brands, fitness, and resale platforms for clothes that no longer fit. I skip snack, soda, fast-food and alcohol names entirely rather than bet against them directly, hold some cash on the side, and avoid concentrating in any single name. I'm measuring this against XLP, and I'd rethink it if spending patterns don't actually shift the way I expect.
What it owns
- Every weekly shot requires multiple components like stoppers, plungers, syringes and cartridges, each supplied by a small group of specialized manufacturers. · West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.It makes the stoppers, plungers and seals that go into injectable drugs, and rising GLP-1 injection volumes drive demand for these components., Stevanato Group S.p.A.It manufactures the glass cartridges and syringes that hold GLP-1 doses, so growth in patient volumes translates directly to higher orders., Becton, Dickinson and CompanyIt is a major producer of syringes and prefilled injection devices used in many injectable drugs including GLP-1s., Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.It provides contract manufacturing and fill-finish services for pharmaceutical companies, and GLP-1 supply constraints have driven demand for its capacity., Embecta Corp.It makes pen needles used in GLP-1 injections, positioning it to capture volume growth from the expanding class of injectable weight-loss and diabetes drugs.30%
- Patients on GLP-1 drugs eat less overall but are advised to consume more protein to maintain muscle, shifting spending toward high-protein foods and supplements. · BellRing Brands, Inc.It makes Premier Protein shakes that help patients on GLP-1s maintain protein intake while eating less., The Simply Good Foods CompanyIt owns Quest and Atkins, high-protein and low-sugar snack brands that appeal to people eating less on GLP-1s., Vital Farms, Inc.It sells premium pasture-raised eggs as a whole-food protein option for people eating less but choosing higher-quality foods., Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.It is the largest US egg producer and benefits if GLP-1 patients shift toward affordable and simple protein sources like eggs., Abbott LaboratoriesIt makes nutritional shakes including Ensure and Glucerna, with products designed for patients on GLP-1s.23%
- As more patients start treatment, the companies selling these drugs directly capture the primary revenue stream from growing prescription volumes. · Eli Lilly and CompanyIt sells Zepbound, Mounjaro and the Foundayo pill, collecting direct revenue from patients starting and continuing GLP-1 treatment., Novo Nordisk A/SIt makes Wegovy and Ozempic, and recently launched its Wegovy pill, offering treatment options as GLP-1 use expands., Hims & Hers Health, Inc.It sells weight-loss care directly to consumers online, making GLP-1 treatment accessible outside traditional medical offices.16%
- Reduced appetite redirects spending away from high-calorie foods and toward fresher meals and gym memberships to preserve muscle during weight loss. · Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.It operates a grocer focused on fresh and healthier food where patients on GLP-1s redirect spending away from processed snacks and sugary drinks., Planet Fitness, Inc.It operates an affordable gym chain where people losing weight on GLP-1s exercise to preserve muscle mass., CAVA Group, Inc.It serves fresh Mediterranean bowls as a fast-casual option that appeals to people reducing calorie intake but still buying prepared meals.14%
- People losing weight sell their old clothing and purchase new wardrobes in smaller sizes, creating demand for resale platforms. · ThredUp Inc.It runs an online resale platform for used clothing that gains traffic and inventory when people lose weight and replace their wardrobe., The RealReal, Inc.It operates a luxury resale platform that gains supply and demand when wealthier people change clothing sizes.9%
- Cash8%