Scarce Resources, Hidden Winners
Mariano Lazarte@mnlazarte
The idea
My belief is that scarce physical resources, clean water, reliable power, climate resilience, will quietly determine which companies can keep operating, especially as AI build-out strains electricity and water systems. I own this through water treatment and reuse, AI-linked power and grid names, cooling infrastructure, and climate hardening plays, spread across many companies rather than concentrated bets. I keep a small cash buffer and plan to hold for years, revisiting if the scarcity thesis itself breaks rather than reacting to short-term price swings.
What it owns
- AI, chip plants and industry all need clean water, and the companies that treat and recycle it are still priced as sleepy. · XylemIt makes pumps, treatment, smart meters and reuse systems that industry and cities need as water gets scarcer, and stays while water infrastructure spending keeps climbing., EcolabIt helps factories, data centers and food plants use and reuse less water, and holds while customers keep paying for water savings., VeraltoIt sells water quality testing and treatment gear, which gets more necessary as contaminant rules tighten and more water gets reused, and fits while demand keeps growing., Watts Water TechnologiesIt makes valves, backflow preventers and flow controls that keep water systems in buildings safe and efficient, and holds while building and retrofit demand for water efficiency stays strong., American Water WorksIt is the biggest US regulated water utility, the slow and steady anchor of the water side, and stays while regulators keep approving rate increases and pipe spending., Energy RecoveryIt makes devices that cut the power desalination plants burn, which ties water scarcity straight to energy, and stays while dry regions keep building desalination plants that use its equipment.29%
- Data centers need firm electricity now, so the companies generating it see demand first. · GE VernovaIt makes the gas turbines and grid gear that new power for AI has to run through, and fits while utilities and data-center builders keep ordering turbines faster than they can be made., Constellation EnergyIt runs the biggest US nuclear fleet, the steady around-the-clock power AI data centers need, and stays in the take while big tech keeps signing long contracts for nuclear output., Vistra CorpIt owns gas and nuclear plants in Texas and the mid-Atlantic, two grids where data-center demand is squeezing supply, and belongs while those power markets stay tight., CamecoIt mines and processes uranium, the fuel under the nuclear side of AI power, and holds while reactor restarts, life extensions and new builds keep utilities signing longer contracts., Bloom EnergyIt manufactures fuel cells that supply power directly at data centers, addressing the constraint of long grid connection timelines for new facilities.27%
- Power is useless without the lines, switchgear and cooling that get it to the servers, and these are the bottleneck. · Quanta ServicesIt builds the transmission lines and substations that carry power to data centers and fix aging grids, and fits while utilities keep raising grid spending., VertivIt makes the cooling and power systems inside data centers where thermal constraints limit chip density and processing capacity., EatonIt makes transformers, switchgear and power distribution gear, a real bottleneck for anyone plugging in a data center, and holds while orders keep outrunning what can be shipped., Trane TechnologiesIt makes chillers and HVAC that cool buildings and data centers with less power and water, and holds while demand for efficient cooling from data centers and hotter summers keeps growing.20%
- Floods, heat and drought are getting costlier, and these companies help businesses and cities keep running through them. · Valmont IndustriesIt makes the steel poles grids hang on and irrigation that saves water on farms, two answers to physical risk in one company, and holds while grid hardening and water-efficient farming drive orders., Advanced Drainage SystemsIt makes stormwater pipes and retention systems, the gear that keeps sites working through heavier floods, and fits while flood rules and storm costs keep pushing builders and towns to buy., Tetra TechIt is an engineering firm that designs water systems and climate resilience projects for governments and companies, and holds while clients keep funding water and resilience work., GeneracIt sells backup generators to homes, businesses and data centers that can't afford to lose power when storms hit or the grid gets strained, and fits while outages stay common enough that people keep buying backup., Lindsay CorporationIt makes center-pivot irrigation that grows more crops with less water, which matters more as droughts spread, and stays while farmers keep investing in water-saving irrigation.16%
- Cash8%