The idea
I believe solo founders and one-person companies become a normal way to work, since AI lets a single person do what used to take a small team. I also think open, freely downloadable AI models push the cost of paid assistants toward zero, so I skip those and instead own the back-office tools solos depend on, the payment rails that move their money, and the chips and clouds that actually run open models. I keep 8% in cash to add on weakness, hold for years, and cut anything that no longer fits that story.
What will be bought
- Solo businesses and first-time employers face tax filing and payroll penalties that make trusted licensed providers worth paying for, even as AI tools get cheaper. · IntuitIt handles tax filing and bookkeeping for the self-employed with licensed preparers and money movement features that free tools cannot legally replace., Bill HoldingsIt routes business bill payments and invoice receipts through licensed money transmitter connections that require legal standing and bank relationships., PaychexIt handles payroll filing and tax deposits for small employers with legal accountability for accuracy, functions where mistakes carry real penalties., H&R BlockIt files taxes for self-employed filers with licensed preparers and audit support, services that protect customers from liability in complex returns., VertexIt calculates sales tax across thousands of local jurisdictions with legal liability protection that a free model cannot assume.28%
- Moving customer money requires licenses, fraud checks and bank relationships that free software cannot replace, so payment platforms stay essential as more people work for themselves. · ShopifyIt provides payment processing and merchant fraud handling for one-person brands and small stores, licensed functions that AI software alone cannot perform., BlockIts Square and Cash App products handle licensed card payments and payouts for small sellers and freelancers, services that require legal money transmitter status., PayPalIt moves money for freelancers and small merchants through licensed payment services backed by buyer trust and dispute resolution that AI cannot replicate., PayoneerIt moves money to freelancers and small sellers across international borders through licensed payment networks in dozens of countries., ToastIt operates payment readers and ordering systems for owner-run restaurants, physical services that AI cannot replace and that depend on location growth.27%
- When models are free to download, revenue flows to whoever owns the computers that run them, making infrastructure rental the profit center. · AmazonIts cloud infrastructure rents computing power to run open models regardless of which free model becomes popular, capturing value from the hosting layer., CloudflareIt hosts and runs open models on edge servers close to users at low per-use costs, designed for small companies that cannot afford large cloud bills., DigitalOceanIt provides simple cheap cloud services used by solo developers and small teams, now renting GPU capacity for running open models., CoreWeaveIt leases large GPU fleets to run open models, capturing revenue from the infrastructure buildout needed for wider model adoption., Nebius GroupIt rents GPU computing and hosts open source models for developers at low cost, a direct play on the spread of free accessible AI., Alibaba GroupIt publishes open models free for anyone and runs the cloud infrastructure hosting them, capturing value from both the model and the computing layer.21%
- Free models still need hardware to run on, so cheaper AI means far more chips and memory sold. · NvidiaFree open models run on Nvidia's chips, and as AI becomes cheaper, more people run more of it, driving greater demand for data center processors., Advanced Micro DevicesIt sells data center processors cheaper than competitors, suited to widespread AI adoption by customers focused on keeping computing costs low., Micron TechnologyEvery model needs fast memory to run, and Micron is one of three companies making the high-end kind that AI workloads require.16%
- Cash8%