Who Survives the Agents
Ben Shen@bgshok
The idea
I think the agent wave splits businesses into two camps: ones that become headless inventory agents just book through, and ones people still choose to visit directly because of trust or habit. Panic selloffs have hit both groups together, so I'm buying the survivors, destination platforms, trusted finance, systems of record, alongside the rails agents need regardless of who wins, payments, identity, and the platforms themselves. I'm avoiding anything likely to go fully headless, keeping about 15% in cash for the next group selloff, and holding this for years rather than trading the headlines.
What will be bought
- Every agent transaction requires payment, verification and routing, and these companies collect fees at each step. · VisaAgent purchases still require payment processing, and Visa collects fees on card-based transactions regardless of who wins the agent race., MastercardIt operates the other major payment network that agent purchases run through and rolled out tools to help merchants verify agents at checkout., CloudflareIt sits between websites and traffic to control which bots and agents gain access, placing it in the middle of agent activity., OktaAgents acting for people and companies need identity verification and permissions, making this login layer essential to agent operations.19%
- These apps offer experiences people choose to visit on purpose, so agents enhance them rather than displace them. · Spotify TechnologyListeners build playlists and habits there, so agents requesting songs still play them through Spotify rather than elsewhere., NetflixIt owns its shows so agents can suggest content but cannot source it elsewhere, keeping viewers tied to the platform., Live Nation EntertainmentIt controls venue and ticket inventory that agents must purchase through rather than around, making it a necessary partner for ticket sales., DuolingoDaily streaks and habit create first-party engagement that keeps users returning regardless of competing AI tutoring tools.18%
- Money and risk depend on trust and complexity, which keeps customers connected to the firm even when agents handle transactions. · JPMorgan ChaseMany customers keep their main account there, and trust in the primary bank relationship remains even as agents handle transactions., American ExpressIts premium card comes with perks people actively choose, and it runs its own network so customers and agents stay within it., Arthur J. GallagherIt brokers complex business insurance where companies seek trusted advisers rather than algorithmic quote comparison., Charles SchwabPeople move retirement savings slowly and trust matters more than price alone, so clients stay even as agents become available elsewhere.18%
- These companies build and operate the agents themselves, so they benefit when agents bypass intermediaries anywhere. · AlphabetIt owns Gemini and the search and Android surfaces where agents live, so it gains from agents winning users even if they change how search monetizes., MicrosoftMost large companies will buy and run agents through Copilot and Azure cloud, making it the primary vendor for business agent spending., AmazonIt runs its own shopping agent and fulfills most purchases from its warehouses, so it wins whether internal or external agents drive orders.17%
- Agents still need underlying business data and workflows, and these companies were oversold as if that dependency disappears. · ServiceNowCompanies record and run their internal workflows there, so agents operate inside that system rather than replacing it., SalesforceIt holds companies' customer data, which agents need to do sales and service work, so agents actually require it to function., AdobeProfessionals continue working in the tools and files they already use, so subscriptions remain sticky even as AI tools proliferate.13%
- Cash15%