GLP-1 Decade
whopaulhugh@whopaulhugh
+3.3%
since Oct 8
The idea
I believe cheaper, more accessible weight-loss drugs are about to reshape how people eat, shop and get treated over the next decade, and that the upside spreads well past the two companies making the drugs. So I split this evenly three ways: the drugmakers and their suppliers, the food and fitness businesses that gain as habits shift, and the healthcare players who manage and pay for these treatments. I lean toward larger, steadier names with a few smaller bets mixed in, and I keep a slice in cash since this is meant to play out over years, not months.
What it owns
- The companies that invent and make these drugs gain as millions more people start taking them, even as prices fall. · Eli Lilly and CompanyMakes the most established weight-loss pill and holds the price advantage for cash payers and Medicare members, so it gains if pill adoption outpaces injections., Novo Nordisk A/SMakes two leading weight-loss drugs and is cutting list prices sharply, which brings in millions more users if lower prices drive adoption faster than competitors capture share., Amgen Inc.A large drugmaker with a next-generation obesity drug in development, so it offers exposure to the next wave of weight-loss treatments if that program advances., Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.Makes drugs under contract for other companies, so it gets paid when weight-loss drug makers need more factory capacity no matter whose drug wins., Danaher CorporationSells equipment and supplies that drugmakers use to produce medicines, so more weight-loss drug volume means more orders for its production tools., Structure Therapeutics Inc.Developing a once-daily weight-loss pill that could become the cheap, easy way most people take these drugs if trials show it can compete with established options., Viking Therapeutics, Inc.A smaller drug developer with its own weight-loss drug advancing through trials, so it stays in play if results remain competitive or it becomes a buyout target.30%
- Pharmacies, insurers, online clinics and monitoring devices handle and pay for these drugs and change as obesity falls. · Abbott LaboratoriesMakes glucose monitors and protein nutrition products, so it can gain as more people track their metabolism and need protein while eating less., CVS Health CorporationFills prescriptions, manages drug benefits and runs an insurer, so it touches these drugs from dispensing to paying for them and gains from higher volumes., UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedThe largest US health insurer wins long-term if cheaper weight-loss drugs cut the expensive obesity-related illnesses it pays for., DexCom, Inc.Makes glucose monitors that non-diabetics can buy over-the-counter to track their metabolism, so it gains if more weight-loss drug users pair monitoring with treatment., Hims & Hers Health, Inc.Runs an online clinic that prescribes weight-loss treatment, which becomes easier to scale as drug prices fall and affordability improves., The Cigna GroupOwns the drug-benefit manager Express Scripts that decides how these drugs get covered and paid for employers, so it gains if managing these programs stays profitable., GoodRx Holdings, Inc.Helps people pay cash for prescriptions at lower prices, which matters more as drugmakers sell these drugs directly to cash-paying customers.30%
- People on these drugs eat less but want more protein and exercise more, so food, grocery and fitness businesses built for that gain customers. · Planet Fitness, Inc.Runs the mass-market gym, and people losing weight are told to exercise to keep muscle, so membership growth depends on that behavior., Costco Wholesale CorporationRuns pharmacies and has members who change their purchases as they lose weight, so it can gain from filling cheaper prescriptions and shifting shopping patterns., Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.A grocery chain built around fresh and healthy food, which is where weight-loss drug users shift their spending as they eat less junk., BellRing Brands, Inc.Sells high-protein shakes that people on these drugs use to maintain muscle while eating much less., Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.Runs premium fitness clubs and health services for members, which fits people pairing weight-loss drugs with serious exercise training., Vital Farms, Inc.Sells pasture-raised eggs and butter, protein-rich foods that fit how people eat on these drugs., The Simply Good Foods CompanyOwns Quest and Atkins protein bars and snacks built for people cutting calories, so it gains if weight-loss drug users shift toward these products., Garmin Ltd.Makes fitness watches that track workouts and health metrics, which people use when they get serious about exercise alongside these drugs.30%
- Cash10%