The Appearance Economy
Alex Alspaugh@alex
· 1
+10.5%
since Sep 30
The idea
As AI takes over more knowledge work, I think the traits machines can't replicate get more valuable, and looking good is one of the biggest. So this basket bets on the whole appearance economy: the heaviest weight sits in GLP-1s and aesthetic procedures where spend is stickiest, balanced by beauty, fitness, and athleisure names for steadier exposure, plus a small slice of platforms that monetize attractiveness directly. I'm holding about 8% in cash and thinking in five-year terms, since this is a structural shift, not a quick trade.
What it owns
- Daily-use makeup and skincare is the broadest, steadiest way the appearance spend shows up. · e.l.f. BeautyIt is the fastest-growing mass beauty brand, capturing younger buyers who treat makeup as everyday appearance spending., Ulta BeautyIt is where most American beauty spending happens, making it a proxy for the entire category regardless of which brand wins., Estee LauderIt is the prestige skincare and makeup house positioned to benefit if appearance spending rises structurally across income levels., Oddity TechIt uses artificial intelligence to sell beauty online through Il Makiage and SpoiledChild, merging the AI shift with the appearance economy., KenvueNeutrogena and Aveeno are everyday skincare essentials that perform steadily regardless of economic cycles.24%
- Weight-loss drugs are the fastest, most medical way people are changing how they look, and the spending is huge and recurring. · Eli LillyZepbound and Mounjaro are among the largest GLP-1 drugs driving the shift toward body recomposition as routine spending., Novo NordiskOzempic and Wegovy made GLP-1 a household category and compete for share in the fast-expanding obesity drug market., Hims & Hers HealthIt sells weight loss, hair, and skin treatments as subscriptions directly to consumers, monetizing appearance through digital access.21%
- Gyms and the clothes people wear to them are how most people invest in their bodies week to week. · Lululemon AthleticaPremium athletic wear signals fitness and health, positioning it as the clothing standard for people investing in their appearance., Planet FitnessIt operates budget gym memberships at scale, the broadest-reach way people week-to-week invest in looking fit., On HoldingPremium running shoes function as both fitness gear and status wear, riding the wave of fitness as appearance investment., Life Time GroupUpscale clubs bundle fitness, recovery, and aesthetics into one offering, capturing the stickiest end of appearance spending., Deckers OutdoorHoka is the dominant shoe in the running boom, which the take says gets fueled by people caring more about fitness and appearance.20%
- Injectables, straighter teeth, and skin treatments are the sticky, repeat-purchase core of looking better. · AbbVieBotox and Juvederm dominate aesthetic injectables, the stickiest recurring form of appearance treatment spending., Align TechnologyInvisalign is a straightforward appearance purchase, and a straighter smile is among the most common cosmetic upgrades adults choose., Establishment LabsPremium breast implants are among the most direct plays on paid cosmetic procedures, benefiting from global growth in aesthetic surgery., InModeIt manufactures machines for body contouring and skin tightening, earning when med spas see enough demand to purchase equipment.19%
- Dating apps are where attractiveness gets directly monetized, the purest read on the take. · Match GroupTinder and Hinge are the platforms where attractiveness becomes literal currency, the purest version of looks getting repriced., BumbleIt competes in the looks-as-currency dating space with a smaller user base and carries execution risk against larger platforms.8%
- Cash8%