Jensen Comes Back
anand iyer@anandiyer
The idea
I think the market overreacted to Nvidia's leadership shakeup and that chip demand matters more than the boardroom drama. This take owns Nvidia as the core position, plus the chain around it: the foundry and memory makers that supply it, the networking and optics names that connect its chips, the cloud providers that rent them out, and the server and cooling companies that house them. It's concentrated by design since this is a near-term call, with some cash held back to add if the stock falls further.
What it owns
- The stock moved sharply on leadership changes and would recover most if concerns fade. · NVIDIA CorporationIts value hinges on whether concerns about leadership and regulatory scrutiny prove temporary or lasting.25%
- These companies manufacture and package Nvidia's chips, so their revenue tracks Nvidia's production orders. · Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingIt manufactures Nvidia's chips, so its sales move directly with Nvidia's order volumes and customer confidence., Micron TechnologyIt supplies the high-speed memory installed alongside Nvidia's AI chips in server racks., Amkor TechnologyIt packages and tests chips in the final step before they ship to data centers, so its volumes track Nvidia's chip production.18%
- They make the optical links and connectors that tie Nvidia chips together in data centers, so their growth depends on how many clusters get built. · Coherent CorpIt makes optical components that carry data between racks of Nvidia chips in large data centers., Lumentum HoldingsIt makes laser components for optical networks inside AI data centers, so its revenue tracks how many Nvidia clusters get deployed., Credo Technology GroupIt makes interconnect cables for servers in AI data centers, so its sales grow when more Nvidia-based systems are deployed., Astera LabsIt makes the chips that connect processors and memory inside AI servers, so it benefits when server production accelerates.17%
- These companies rent Nvidia chips to customers, so they benefit when confidence in Nvidia's supply and support strengthens. · CoreWeaveIt rents Nvidia chips to customers and depends on steady supply from Nvidia and steady demand from its clients., Nebius GroupIt rents Nvidia chips to customers and needs to maintain access to Nvidia's supply and retain its paying user base., Oracle CorporationIt builds cloud infrastructure around Nvidia chips, so its capacity expansion depends on Nvidia's supply reliability and customer confidence.15%
- They build and cool the server racks that hold Nvidia chips, so their sales rise and fall with data center buildouts. · Vertiv HoldingsIt makes the power and cooling systems that dense racks of Nvidia chips require in data centers., Dell TechnologiesIt builds servers around Nvidia chips, so its AI server sales depend on customer willingness to keep ordering Nvidia-based systems., Super Micro ComputerIt assembles servers built around Nvidia chips, but faces additional regulatory risks that could disrupt its business independently.14%
- Cash11%