−9.4%
since Oct 8
The idea
I believe security budgets are consolidating: companies are ditching dozens of point tools for a handful of AI-powered platforms, while AI-driven attacks force spending higher. This basket owns the likely winners of that shakeout, platform leaders at the core, cloud, network, identity, and attack-surface names around them, plus two sector ETFs for ballast so one bad quarter doesn't define it. I'm holding cash on the side to add to the core if the market overreacts to short-term noise, with a one to two year horizon and no single name dominating the bet.
What it owns
- These companies are winning as customers replace point products with broader platforms, consolidating vendors and expanding total spending per relationship. · Palo Alto NetworksIt actively bundles security tools to replace customers' point products, and the take depends on its platform deals and total contract value continuing to expand., CrowdStrike HoldingsIt started at the endpoint and keeps adding modules customers adopt instead of buying standalone tools, with success measured by customers attaching more modules per deal., MicrosoftIt bundles security into licenses companies already pay for, making it the default consolidation choice for many buyers, and it controls the AI infrastructure both defense and attack run on., FortinetIt is converting its large firewall customer base into broader platform adoption, especially where networking and security overlap.32%
- These replace legacy network perimeters and older security infrastructure with cloud-native services, capturing budget shifts away from on-premise hardware. · ZscalerIt replaces corporate network perimeters with cloud services, the kind of legacy-tool replacement this take expects to drive security budgets forward., CloudflareIt sits in front of a large share of internet traffic and layers security and AI services on top, with the bet that security revenue compounds as companies simplify onto its network platform., Check Point SoftwareIt is pushing its own consolidated platform at profitable, lower valuations, giving the take a value-priced way to own the same consolidation shift., Akamai TechnologiesIts growth now comes from security and cloud services rather than content delivery, requiring security to keep becoming a larger share of revenue.20%
- These companies built AI-driven security from the ground up or are extending existing platforms with AI, positioned to benefit as security threats accelerate. · RubrikIt protects and recovers data after ransomware attacks and is building AI-driven security on top of that data foundation., DatadogIt watches everything running in cloud environments and is extending that visibility into security, fitting the fewer-vendors story for consolidation., SentinelOneIt built its defense around AI from inception and competes at lower prices, requiring continued fast growth and progress toward profit to justify this higher-risk position.14%
- These map and secure company exposure before attackers find it, a job that grows more urgent as AI-powered attacks accelerate and companies feed data into AI systems. · QualysIt maps where companies are exposed before attackers find vulnerabilities, a job that becomes more urgent as AI-powered attacks accelerate., Varonis SystemsIt secures data itself by controlling access, which matters more as companies feed sensitive data into AI tools and systems., Tenable HoldingsIt maps what companies expose to the internet, a job that expands as AI lets attackers probe faster and broader.10%
- Broad cybersecurity ETFs that track overall sector spending, insulating the take from single-stock risk while maintaining exposure to the overall security spending trend. · First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETFIt holds the broad cybersecurity sector, so the take still gains if security spending rises even if a different vendor wins than expected., Amplify Cybersecurity ETFIt holds broad cybersecurity sector exposure through a second fund provider with different holdings, spreading ballast to keep the take alive on overall spending trends.9%
- Identity is the primary attack vector in modern threats, so consolidating buyers need independent identity layers to secure their platforms. · OktaIt is the largest independent identity platform, and most modern attacks start with identity, so consolidating buyers need serious identity layers.5%
- Cash10%