Bottlenecks of a Divided World
owocki@owocki
−5.8%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe rivalry among the major powers is pushing every country toward self-reliance, and that spending hits hardest at the choke points, not the famous names everyone already owns. So this leans into the suppliers behind defense components, critical minerals, grid hardware, reshoring machinery, and shipbuilding, spread across six layers rather than concentrated in one. I keep a small cash reserve and hold it as a long structural position, since the idea doesn't hinge on any single event playing out on schedule.
What it owns
- Rearmament creates sustained demand for munitions, sensors and components whose production capacity is the limiting factor, not military spending itself. · L3Harris TechnologiesIt supplies munitions, radios and electronics that every rearming country needs in volume, sitting at the choke point where defense budgets convert into actual orders., Kratos Defense & SecurityIt builds low-cost drones in volume, a shift that military budgets are adopting as inexpensive expendable systems prove more valuable than expensive platforms., Howmet AerospaceIt makes engine parts and fasteners that military and commercial aircraft require, with few alternative suppliers able to meet growing demand., Leonardo DRSIt builds sensors and naval power systems that go inside military ships and vehicles, supplying the components that prime contractors assemble into complete systems., AeroVironmentIt leads in loitering munitions that militaries now stockpile as standard equipment, with demand for expendable precision weapons outrunning what suppliers can deliver.25%
- Western nations are sourcing rare earths, copper, lithium and uranium outside China and Russia, and producers outside those countries remain scarce. · MP MaterialsIt runs the only major US rare earths mine, providing direct proof that supply constraints outside China's control create lasting structural advantages., Freeport-McMoRanIt is the largest Western source of copper, a material required across grids, munitions and reshored factories where demand outpaces new mine supply by years., CamecoIt is the West's primary source of non-Russian uranium as nations return to nuclear power for energy self-reliance and sign long-term supply contracts., Energy FuelsIt produces both uranium and rare earths on American soil, two separate bottlenecks in one small company that benefits from continued domestic production policy., AlbemarleIt is a major lithium producer outside China's control, supplying the raw material for batteries as the West pursues domestic production.22%
- Energy security requires rebuilding electrical systems, and the makers of transformers and grid equipment face waiting lists that stretch years ahead. · GE VernovaIt makes transformers and turbines every country needs to harden its grid, with waiting lists running years as demand outpaces factory capacity., Eaton CorporationIt supplies electrical equipment for grid upgrades, new factories and data centers, all accelerating as self-reliance and electrification drive simultaneous buildouts., Quanta ServicesIt owns the skilled labor crews that build and rebuild grid infrastructure, a constraint that training alone cannot quickly resolve despite rising spending., HubbellIt sells connectors, enclosures and utility hardware that every mile of hardened grid infrastructure requires, the unglamorous chokepoint typical of this take.20%
- Factories returning to the West need automation and chipmaking tools, and the makers of this equipment are the true bottleneck behind reshoring. · Applied MaterialsIt supplies the tools every new semiconductor fab needs, placing it at the bottleneck as governments fund domestic chipmaking capacity across the US, Japan and Europe., Rockwell AutomationIt supplies automation systems that factories need when reshoring to high-wage countries, turning reshoring announcements into actual equipment orders., Emerson ElectricIt makes industrial controls and software that reshored plants, LNG terminals and refineries depend on, benefiting from domestic energy and manufacturing buildout.14%
- Naval capacity is the scarcest resource in defense as great powers rebuild fleets, and few yards exist that can meet this demand. · Huntington Ingalls IndustriesIt is the only American yard capable of building aircraft carriers, making it the literal bottleneck in the race to rebuild naval power., BWX TechnologiesIt is effectively the sole maker of reactors for US submarines and carriers, meaning every dollar of naval expansion flows through its manufacturing capacity.10%
- State-level conflict now moves through networks, placing cybersecurity infrastructure at the center of national defense spending. · Palo Alto NetworksIt provides cyber defense infrastructure as nations harden digital borders against state-backed hacking, a budget line that survives cuts to other spending.4%
- Cash5%