Fiber Is the Next Protein
MDG@mickeyg
The idea
I think fiber is about to become the label claim food companies chase next, especially as more people on GLP-1 drugs need more of it in their diet. Rather than bet on which brand wins that race, I'm weighted toward the ingredient makers who supply fiber to all of them regardless of who's winning on shelf, with smaller positions in the brands actually reformulating, the supplement makers, and a GLP-1 name as a demand signal and hedge.
What it owns
- These companies sell the fiber itself to food makers, so they get paid regardless of which brand wins with consumers. · Ingredion IncorporatedIt sells soluble fiber and texture ingredients to food makers of all sizes, so it gets paid whichever brand wins the fiber shelf., Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyIt makes Fibersol, a soluble fiber that food companies add to drinks, bars and snacks, through its partnership with Matsutani., International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.It supplies prebiotics, probiotics and flavor work that makes high-fiber food taste normal as brands reformulate., MGP Ingredients, Inc.It sells Fibersym, a wheat-based resistant starch that adds fiber with little change to taste.33%
- The big food and drink makers putting fiber on the label gain shelf space and pricing if shoppers shift toward fiber-forward products. · PepsiCo, Inc.It has committed publicly to fiber as a growth driver and is launching fiber-forward snacks and drinks to replace slowing soft drinks., General Mills, Inc.It owns Fiber One, a brand built entirely on the fiber claim, plus cereals that can be relabeled around fiber., The Coca-Cola CompanyIt launched Simply Pop, a prebiotic soda betting that fiber-in-a-can drinks pull shoppers away from regular soda., Flowers Foods, Inc.It owns Dave's Killer Bread and other high-fiber breads where whole grain and fiber are already the main selling points.27%
- Metamucil and Benefiber are the most direct consumer entry points for fiber, and rising interest in fiber lifts them first. · Haleon plcIt owns Benefiber, a fiber supplement people reach for when food alone does not supply enough, including many people on weight-loss drugs., The Procter & Gamble CompanyIt owns Metamucil, the best-known fiber supplement in the U.S., inside a stable business that can hold the take when food stocks weaken.17%
- A grocer specializing in better-for-you products and a contract manufacturer both benefit as fiber brands scale up production and gain retail distribution. · Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.It is the grocer where better-for-you and high-fiber brands tend to get shelf space first, so it gains as shoppers trade toward them.7%
- Weight-loss drug users need more fiber to manage digestion, which drives fiber demand while the drug maker hedges against snack-sales declines from the same users. · Eli Lilly and CompanyIt makes Zepbound and Mounjaro, weight-loss drugs whose users eat less and need more fiber, which feeds demand for this take.6%
- Cash9%