Agent Picks and Shovels
Sean@sean
−8.8%
since Oct 7
The idea
I believe people will increasingly hand over consequential life choices to software agents, but open models keep gaining share, so the agent layer itself commoditizes while the real profits sit underneath it. That's why this basket skips the hyperscalers and instead owns silicon and compute, neutral serving and memory infrastructure, payment and identity rails, and businesses with exclusive supply that holds up even as agents comparison-shop everything else. It keeps a cash buffer and avoids single-name concentration.
What it owns
- Open models shift profit away from software to the chips that run every agent decision, regardless of which model wins. · NVIDIAIt manufactures the silicon that executes every significant agent decision, so it collects payment per decision whether the winning model is open or closed., Taiwan SemiconductorAlmost every advanced AI chip, from NVIDIA to AMD to custom designs, gets made at its foundries, so it profits from all sides of the agent compute bet without picking a model winner., BroadcomIt builds custom AI chips and the networking that connects clusters together, capturing the infrastructure layer beneath agent applications rather than the hyperscalers themselves., Advanced Micro DevicesIf open models take share, inference spreads to cheaper chips, and it is the main alternative supplier running that less expensive workload., Micron TechnologyAgents carrying lasting understanding of personal goals need vast memory per query, and it supplies the high-bandwidth memory that demand lands on., Marvell TechnologyIt designs custom AI chips for major cloud buyers, collecting profit from agent compute without needing to predict which model will win.38%
- Open-model agents need neutral cloud infrastructure to run on, networks to connect them, and databases to store long-term context. · CoreWeaveIt operates as a neutral compute landlord where open-model builders rent GPU capacity instead of relying on the hyperscalers' proprietary clouds., Arista NetworksIt sells the networking gear that AI datacenters are built on, so it gets paid whenever anyone constructs agent capacity, whether at hyperscalers or neutral clouds., MongoDBAgents trained on individual life goals need a neutral place to store lasting context, and it serves as a leading database for exactly that kind of agent memory layer., CloudflareIt provides neutral infrastructure where open-model inference can run at the edge, close to users, outside any hyperscaler's control., SnowflakeAgents guiding consequential choices need clean, governed data about people and the world, and it supplies that context layer independent of any model or cloud platform.22%
- When agents pay or sign on behalf of someone, these transaction rails and identity layers collect a toll regardless of which model powers the agent. · VisaWhen agents complete transactions on someone's behalf, the payment still clears on its rails, and it collects a toll per transaction regardless of who made the choice., MastercardIt is a major toll booth on agent-driven commerce, collecting a cut from every transaction that agents execute on someone's behalf., ShopifyIt runs checkout for millions of merchants, so even when agents comparison-shop everything, purchases complete on its rails rather than agents bypassing it., OktaAgents trusted with consequential choices must prove who they act for, and it builds the identity layer that ties machine credentials to real human authority.17%
- Supply that agents cannot comparison-shop away preserves margins even when agents themselves become commoditized. · Uber TechnologiesAgents can comparison-shop ride prices, but the drivers exist only on its network, so margins survive the shopping., Live Nation EntertainmentWhen agents book concerts, there is usually one seller of each seat, and it owns the venue, promotion and ticket, preserving margins through exclusive supply., AirbnbMost of its homes exist nowhere else, so agents booking stays must still come to it for that inventory, and margins survive comparison shopping.13%
- Cash10%