Deep Lp(a) Drugmakers
Michael Karnjanaprakorn@mikekarnj
+0.5%
since Oct 15
Practiced to −4.9% over 15 days before going real.
Practice chapter: simulated results; no money was invested.
The idea
I believe drugs that deeply lower Lp(a), the inherited heart-risk particle statins never touched, will succeed where the last shallow attempt fell short, and that far more people will end up taking them. To express it I own five drugmakers only: Amgen and Lilly as the core bets on late-stage deep-lowering drugs, Merck for the shift to at-home cholesterol pills, and Silence and CRISPR as smaller, higher-risk pure plays on this one idea. I keep a meaningful cash buffer on purpose, ready to add if a trial readout knocks the group down, since every result here moves the whole take together.
What it owns
- The two giants with deep-lowering Lp(a) drugs in final-stage trials, where the bet gets decided first. · Eli LillyIt has lepodisiran in final-stage trials plus an oral Lp(a) pill in development, creating two paths for deep lowering to reach patients and for more people to stay on treatment., AmgenIt is running final-stage trials on olpasiran, which cuts Lp(a) far deeper than prior approaches, testing whether deep lowering is what works where shallow lowering failed.48%
- Small companies living almost entirely on their Lp(a) programs, the highest-swing version of the bet. · Silence TherapeuticsIt is almost entirely focused on zerlasiran, its deep Lp(a)-lowering drug, making it the purest play on whether drugs that deeply lower Lp(a) will succeed., CRISPR TherapeuticsIt is working on a one-time gene edit that would lower Lp(a) permanently, the deepest possible version of chemical lowering, with value resting on whether the effect is safe and lasts.22%
- Pills people can take at home are how more people will take them actually happens at scale. · MerckIt is shifting cholesterol treatment toward oral pills people take at home instead of injections at clinics, the delivery model needed for deep-lowering drugs to reach scale.15%
- Cash15%