Hard Assets for a Soft Dollar
Jared@jaredblake
−8.0%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe persistent deficits keep eroding the dollar's purchasing power, and the real winners are modern hard assets rather than gold. So this basket leans into bitcoin held through liquid vehicles and exchanges, the chipmakers and equipment behind compute scarcity, and the energy, grid, cooling, and real estate infrastructure that all of it runs on. It's spread across many names rather than concentrated in one bet, with a cash buffer, and it's built to be held for years since a currency debasement story doesn't play out in a quarter.
What it owns
- The chips and the machines that make them are the productive hard goods of the AI era, and only a handful of companies can produce them at the leading edge. · Taiwan SemiconductorNearly every advanced AI chip gets made at its foundry, making it the chokepoint factory for the compute that this take depends on., NVIDIAIt makes the GPUs that everyone wants for AI, and benefits while buildout demand keeps outrunning supply and its software ecosystem stays hard to replace., ASML HoldingIt is the only company that makes the machines needed to print advanced chips, making it a literal monopoly in the compute scarcity story., Micron TechnologyIt makes the high-bandwidth memory that AI servers need in large quantities, and is one of three suppliers keeping memory supply tight as demand grows., BroadcomIt designs custom AI chips for large cloud companies and the networking silicon between them, fitting the compute scarcity view from the custom chip side., Advanced Micro DevicesIt provides a second source of AI chips, benefiting if buyers keep looking for alternatives to reduce dependence on a single supplier.24%
- Bitcoin's supply is fixed by code, so a rise in the money supply increases the scarcity value of each coin relative to currency. · iShares Bitcoin TrustIt holds bitcoin directly in a liquid fund, giving exposure to the fixed-supply asset if bitcoin trades as scarce money rather than falling with broader risk., Robinhood MarketsIt has been gaining crypto trading volume and retail customers faster than its competitors, making it a smaller way to hold the retail crypto growth story., Riot PlatformsIt mines bitcoin at scale, offering leveraged exposure to hard-money conviction if bitcoin's price stays above production costs and power deals remain stable., Coinbase GlobalIt provides custody and institutional trading rails for crypto, remaining relevant to the digital hard money story even if retail trading volume shifts elsewhere.22%
- AI and crypto both run on electricity, so the plants and fuel that supply it are essential to support the buildout. · Constellation EnergyIt runs the largest U.S. nuclear fleet, providing the steady carbon-free power that data centers are signing long-term contracts to buy., VistraIt sells power directly to data centers from gas and nuclear plants, providing a direct read on whether those power deals keep getting signed at firm prices., GE VernovaIt makes the gas turbines and grid equipment that the power buildout cannot happen without, with order backlogs stretching multiple years., CamecoIt is the largest Western uranium miner, and benefits if nuclear power increases to fuel the AI buildout, keeping fuel supply tight.20%
- Transformers, cooling systems and network gear are the hardware chokepoints that every new data center depends on. · EatonIt makes the transformers and switchgear that deliver grid power into data centers, a piece facing a multiyear shortage from the AI and grid buildout., Vertiv HoldingsIt sells the cooling and power distribution systems inside data centers, including the liquid cooling that new high-density AI chips require., Arista NetworksIt makes the network switches that tie thousands of GPUs into one machine, a piece of the AI infrastructure value chain., Quanta ServicesIt builds and upgrades the electrical grid, serving as the labor and execution chokepoint in getting power to data centers as demand keeps rising.16%
- The buildings and land housing data center compute are scarce assets collecting rent from the AI and cloud buildout. · Digital Realty TrustIt leases large-scale data center space to cloud and AI tenants, benefiting as demand for data center capacity keeps outrunning new supply., EquinixIt owns the buildings and land that data centers sit on, collecting rent from the AI buildout as space stays scarce and rents rise.10%
- Cash8%