Agents Pay On-Chain
Brian Donohue@bthdonohue
−3.3%
since Oct 8
The idea
I believe AI agents will increasingly pay merchants and each other in stablecoins over blockchains, so this take owns the rails that settle those payments rather than the stablecoins themselves. Roughly 40% sits in the companies running their own chains and collecting the fees, another third in open networks like Ethereum and Solana plus smaller payment-first challengers, and the rest in the layer-2 networks those corporate chains are built on. I'm holding a larger cash reserve to add when prices fall hard, and I plan to hold for three to five years since real agent spending is still early.
What it owns
- Coinbase, Circle and Robinhood run their own chains and earn the fees directly, which can only be owned through their stock. · Coinbase GlobalIt created and runs Base, which carries the majority of agent payment volume, so it collects fees right where payments happen., Circle Internet GroupIt issues USDC, the dollar stablecoin agents mostly pay in, and launched Arc chain where USDC fees flow back to it., Robinhood MarketsIt is building its own chain to collect fees on payments and trading instead of paying someone else to process them.40%
- Solana and Ethereum are where most open-network stablecoin payments settle, so more agent traffic means more fees paid to them. · EthereumIt is a live payment network and the base layer that major chains settle back to, so agent payments on those chains lean on it., SolanaIt is fast and cheap enough for agents paying in tiny amounts many times a day and carries a real share of open stablecoin volume.26%
- Smaller fast, cheap chains built for payments could win agent traffic if the big two get crowded or expensive. · SuiIt is a fast, cheap chain competing to carry stablecoin payments, a small bet that agent spending spreads past today's leaders., NEAR ProtocolIt pitches itself as a chain for AI agents, which makes it a direct bet on agents transacting on their own for payments., Stellar LumensIt was built for payments and is already one of the live networks carrying stablecoin transactions for agents.12%
- Base and other corporate chains run on Optimism and Arbitrum technology, so these coins collect from corporate chain growth too. · OptimismBase, which handles the majority of agent payment volume, is built on its technology and shares revenue back with it., ArbitrumIt is a live payment network and offers the tech companies use to launch their own chains, so it gets paid when corporate chains grow.7%
- Cash15%