Robots Everywhere, Musk First
Casey Watters@caseywatters
−7.7%
since Oct 6
The idea
I think robots and autonomy become how things move and get made over the next five to ten years, with driverless cars leading the way. I anchor it with the two Musk companies, Tesla and the newly listed SpaceX, then spread across today's robot makers and the chip, sensor, and materials suppliers that get paid regardless of which robot wins. It is broad rather than a bet on one name, with a small cash reserve to add on dips, and I plan to hold through the noise since this is a long arc, not a quick trade.
What it owns
- These companies already sell working robots deployed in surgery, factories, warehouses, and farms, positioning them to scale as automation spreads. · Intuitive SurgicalIt dominates surgical robotics with installed systems where surgeons pay per procedure, positioning it to grow as procedure volumes rise., Symbotic Inc.It automates warehouses for major retailers, scaling with deployment commitments as supply chain automation accelerates., Teradyne, Inc.It owns Universal Robots, the leading collaborative arm brand in small-factory automation, plus test equipment for robot semiconductors., Rockwell AutomationIt provides the control systems and software backbone for factory automation in North America, benefiting from reshoring and rising automation spending., Deere & CompanyIt builds tractors with self-driving and autonomous spraying capabilities, scaling as farmers adopt and pay recurring software fees., Serve RoboticsIt deploys sidewalk delivery robots for ride-hailing platforms, executing on unit economics to reach profitability at scale.26%
- This take centers on two publicly traded Musk companies as anchors for exposure to robotics execution across consumer vehicles, humanoid machines, and space infrastructure. · Tesla, Inc.It pursues robotaxis and humanoid robots as core businesses, making autonomy progress and deployment scale the key drivers for this take., SpaceXIt became publicly tradable after decades as a private company, offering direct exposure to launch cadence expansion and Starlink scaling.25%
- Every robot requires semiconductors, sensors, and materials to function, so these suppliers capture value across all robot winners and losers in the take. · NVIDIA CorporationIt supplies the chips and software platforms that most robots train and run on, making it a default dependency regardless of which specific robot wins., Taiwan SemiconductorIt manufactures most advanced robot chips including those from competitors, so it captures value across all autonomy pathways., MP MaterialsIt is the primary US source of rare earth magnets for robot motors and electric vehicle drives, benefiting from supply chain diversification away from China., ON SemiconductorIt supplies image sensors and power semiconductors for autonomous vehicles, capturing value from rising sensor counts as autonomy advances., Ouster, Inc.It manufactures lidar sensors for autonomous vehicles and industrial robots, scaling sales as lidar becomes the standard sensing approach.24%
- If autonomous vehicles become the primary mode of transportation, these companies either operate the networks or supply the core autonomy technology. · Alphabet Inc.It owns Waymo, the furthest-along autonomous ride network today, which expands to new cities and scales paid miles., Uber TechnologiesIt positions itself as the platform where autonomous fleets plug in to access riders, capturing value from driverless proliferation., Aurora InnovationIt develops autonomous trucks for long-haul freight, a use case where autonomy may reach profitability earliest through highway route scaling., Mobileye GlobalIt sells autonomous driving software to traditional automakers that lack their own self-driving programs, capturing the non-Tesla autonomy market.17%
- Cash8%