Memory Crunch Chokepoints
Rupert M.@ecomeratehq
−18.5%
since Oct 9
The idea
I believe the memory shortage runs well into 2027, and that the market will eventually price the real bottlenecks sitting underneath the memory makers rather than the memory names themselves. So this basket leans heaviest into photonics (Lumentum and Coherent), with test and packaging, chip-making equipment, and power as the chokepoints behind the boom, plus SanDisk and Micron for direct memory exposure. It stays concentrated in high-conviction names, holds through volatility, and keeps a cash reserve to add if prices drop.
What it owns
- AI data centers move data with light instead of copper, and the lasers and optical parts that do it are in short supply. · Lumentum Holdings Inc.It makes the lasers inside high-speed optical links, a part that stays short as AI clusters grow., Coherent Corp.It makes the optical transceivers and lasers that carry data between AI chips at a scale no other maker matches., Ciena CorporationIt sells the gear that links data centers to each other, which matters more as AI training spreads across sites., FabrinetIt builds optical parts on contract for the big optics companies, so it gets paid no matter which brand wins., Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.It wins transceiver orders from big cloud customers when optics supply is tight and rivals are capacity-constrained.31%
- Every stacked memory chip has to be cut, bonded and tested, and these companies own those steps. · Teradyne, Inc.It makes machines that test memory and AI chips before they ship, and testing gets harder as memory stacks grow., FormFactor, Inc.It makes probe cards, the parts that touch each chip to test it, and HBM needs a lot of them as output ramps., Onto Innovation Inc.It makes tools that inspect the advanced packaging that puts memory right next to AI chips as packaging scales., Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.It makes bonding machines that join chips together, including newer tools for stacking HBM in memory factories., Camtek Ltd.It makes inspection machines used on HBM and advanced packaging, and inspection stays a tight step in production.17%
- New memory factories can't open without these tools, so they get paid even if memory prices cool later. · Lam Research CorporationIt supplies the etch and deposition machines that memory makers need for new fabs, so its growth tracks capacity spending by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron., Applied Materials, Inc.It makes a wide range of chip-making machines, so it gets paid when memory and chip makers build more fabs., KLA CorporationIt makes the tools that find defects and keep yields up, which gets more valuable as memory and packaging get complex., ASML Holding N.V.It is the only maker of the most advanced lithography machines that leading memory chips need for new fabs.16%
- The makers selling memory and flash storage at record prices while supply stays tight. · Sandisk CorporationIt is the direct bet on flash memory staying short as AI data center buildouts continue., Micron Technology, Inc.It sells DRAM and HBM, the stacked memory AI chips need, and stands as the anchor for the memory supply crunch.15%
- Data centers and chip factories both need far more electricity than the grid can supply today. · GE Vernova Inc.It makes the gas turbines and grid gear that new data centers need as electricity becomes a binding constraint., Vertiv Holdings CoIt sells the power and cooling equipment that goes inside AI data centers as their buildout accelerates., Eaton Corporation plcIt makes electrical equipment like switchgear and transformers for data centers and the grid as electricity grows scarce.13%
- Cash8%