Electricity Is Eating Everything
whopaulhugh@whopaulhugh
−0.4%
since Oct 16
The idea
I believe electricity demand is outgrowing the physical system built to deliver it, so I'm betting on who gets paid while grids, transformers and skilled labor play catch-up. Roughly two-thirds sits in shortage plays: companies making the equipment that's scarce, and ones helping customers work around the wait with on-site power and longer-lived gear. The rest is steadier generation and utility exposure, plus cooling and electrification plays, with a small cash buffer and no single name over 6%. I'd rethink this if hookup queues and equipment lead times start shrinking faster than expected.
What it owns
- Equipment and skilled electricians are in short supply, so the companies selling them can charge more and fill order books years ahead. · GE VernovaIt makes gas turbines and grid equipment that the system cannot get enough of, so it gets paid while customers wait in line., Eaton CorporationIt sells switchgear, breakers and power management gear that every new factory, data centre and grid hookup needs, with long lead times giving it pricing power., Quanta ServicesIt is the largest US builder of power lines and employs the line workers the industry is short of, turning a labour bottleneck into market share., IES HoldingsIt gets paid because there are not enough electricians to do the work, so its backlog grows faster than it can hire crews to clear it., Hubbell IncorporatedIt makes the connectors, insulators and grid hardware utilities need to expand and patch the grid as new demand keeps arriving., Powell IndustriesIt builds custom switchgear for big industrial, utility and data centre projects, gear that is scarce and slow to source., MYR GroupIt builds transmission lines and does electrical contracting, getting paid for scarce skilled crews doing work utilities cannot easily find elsewhere.32%
- When a grid connection or new transformer is years away, customers pay for power made on site, for keeping old gear running and for squeezing more out of existing lines. · Solaris Energy InfrastructureIt rents and runs modular turbines next to customers who cannot wait for the grid, with long-term deals that lock in revenue for years., Bloom EnergyIts fuel cells let customers make power on site instead of waiting years for a grid hookup, letting them skip the queue entirely., ItronIt sells smart meters and software that let utilities shift and manage demand, squeezing more out of the grid they already have., Generac HoldingsIt sells backup and on-site generators to homes, businesses and data centres, letting customers own their own power when the grid is strained., ESCO TechnologiesIts testing and monitoring units help old transformers and breakers keep running while replacements are scarce, extending the life of aging gear., Preformed Line ProductsIt makes the hardware for reconductoring, which means restringing existing lines to carry more power without waiting for new corridors to be built., American SuperconductorIt sells systems that stabilise voltage and fix power-quality problems on a stressed grid, helping it run harder without new infrastructure.30%
- These companies make and sell electricity, so they earn more as people use more of it; they're kept smaller here as steady ballast. · Constellation EnergyIt runs the biggest US nuclear fleet, and buyers who cannot wait years for new plants are paying for power from reactors that already exist., American Electric PowerIt is a steady utility sitting on a large pipeline of big new customers, even buying power-generation equipment to serve them faster than grid upgrades alone., Vistra Corp.It sells power from gas and nuclear plants into Texas, where new demand is arriving faster than new supply can be built., Entergy CorporationIt serves the Gulf Coast, where factories, petrochemical plants and data centres are switching to electricity and adding load to the system., NextEra EnergyIt builds wind, solar and storage, often the quickest new generation to get online, adding capacity faster than hookup delays can slow it.18%
- More electricity means more heat to remove and more buildings heated electrically, which grows cooling and heat-pump markets well beyond AI. · Vertiv HoldingsIt supplies the power and cooling gear inside data centres, one of the fastest-growing electricity loads on the system., Trane TechnologiesIt sells commercial cooling and heat pumps, so it benefits as buildings switch from gas heat to electric and cooling demand grows., nVent ElectricIt makes electrical enclosures and liquid cooling, so it gets paid as more equipment needs housing and hotter chips need cooling systems., Modine ManufacturingIt makes cooling and heat-management gear for data centres, buildings and vehicles, all loads that grow as electricity spreads through the economy., AAON Inc.It makes heat pumps and rooftop units for buildings plus cooling for server racks, capturing both building electrification and data centre growth.13%
- Cash7%