Power, Chips, China Sprint
Hua@hua
−12.4%
since Oct 7
The idea
I believe energy demand keeps climbing, chips are the bottleneck for AI, and China keeps its manufacturing edge. This is the shorter, 2-4 year version, so it leans into what's shipping now: AI chipmakers and the tools they depend on, plus power producers and grid equipment tied to current data center buildout. China exposure comes through an EV fund and listed automakers rather than single bets. I keep 10% in cash to use on dips, since a tighter timeline makes the swings matter more.
What it owns
- If chips are the limiting factor for AI, the companies designing and making them capture the shortage. · Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingNearly every advanced AI chip gets made in its fabs, making it the manufacturing bottleneck for the entire AI buildout., Advanced Micro DevicesIt serves as the second source for AI chips, winning real data center orders from buyers who cannot secure enough NVIDIA supply., NVIDIAIt sells the chips powering today's AI buildout, making it the most direct way to own the belief that chips are the constraint., BroadcomIt designs custom AI chips for tech giants and builds the networking gear that connects AI data centers together., Micron TechnologyIt is one of only three companies making high-bandwidth memory that AI chips require, and that memory is the real constraint.36%
- Data centers are signing power deals now, and the companies selling electricity and grid equipment are the direct sellers into that shortage. · VistraIt owns power plants and sells electricity directly to data centers, capturing the energy shortage premise in real-time contracts., Constellation EnergyIt runs the largest nuclear fleet in the US and has signed long-term contracts selling that power to AI data centers., GE VernovaIt sells gas turbines and grid equipment that turn energy demand into actual power capacity, with years of backlogged orders., Vertiv HoldingsIt supplies the cooling and power infrastructure inside AI data centers, where each new rack of chips drives another order., EatonIt makes the electrical equipment connecting new power supply to new data centers, sitting in the middle of the energy buildout., CamecoIt is one of the world's largest uranium miners, and nuclear plants being restarted for AI power demand will need its fuel.30%
- Every new chip factory has to buy from a handful of toolmakers first, so they get paid before the chips even ship. · ASML HoldingIt is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines required to produce advanced chips at scale, making it essential to any effort to resolve chip supply constraints., Applied MaterialsIt is the broadest supplier of chip-making equipment, taking a toll on every new fab regardless of the chipmaker., Lam ResearchIt supplies the etching and deposition equipment that every new semiconductor fabrication facility requires, so its fortunes track global fab construction and capacity expansion.14%
- Chinese EV makers and a fund holding BYD represent China's manufacturing edge in electric vehicles and batteries. · KraneShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETFIt holds BYD and China's broader EV supply chain, providing US-listed exposure to Chinese manufacturing dominance in electric vehicles., XPengIt represents the tech-heavy side of China's EV push, with proprietary driver-assist software and chip design., Li AutoIt is a profitable Chinese EV maker growing deliveries, offering a cleaner bet on Chinese manufacturing than unprofitable startups.10%
- Cash10%