Full Chaos Basket
−5.4%
since Sep 16
The idea
I'm betting the next year gets messier, not calmer: a midterm sweep, an erratic reaction to it, and escalating Middle East tensions. Rather than the obvious chaos trade, I'm leaning into the second-order winners, tankers that spike when Gulf shipping turns dangerous, gold miners that move harder than bullion, oil services tied to supply disruption, and higher-beta defense names, with bullion and silver as a smaller anchor. It's concentrated on purpose since the window is short, and I'm keeping 10% cash to add if things actually get worse.
What it owns
- Gold miners amplify moves in the metal itself, so rising prices from geopolitical stress lift earnings faster than the commodity climbs. · Agnico Eagle MinesIt is the most operationally stable large gold producer, so its earnings track gold prices closely when geopolitical fear lifts the metal., NewmontIt is the world's largest gold producer, so rising gold prices flow nearly straight into operating earnings without offsetting costs., Kinross GoldIt swings more sharply than larger miners in both directions, making it the most leveraged play on gold prices within the chaos window., Wheaton Precious MetalsIt buys gold and silver from miners at fixed low prices, so higher metal prices accrue almost entirely as profit without mining operational risk., Barrick MiningIt has underperformed other major producers, so a strong sustained gold price could drive a valuation recovery on operational stabilization.22%
- Smaller defense contractors see orders accelerate sharply when conflicts escalate and defense budgets loosen in response. · Kratos DefenseIt builds affordable combat drones that militaries order rapidly once conflicts escalate and procurement budgets open., L3Harris TechnologiesIt produces defense electronics, radios, and munitions components that militaries reorder heavily after conflicts deplete inventories., AeroVironmentIt manufactures small tactical drones and loitering munitions that get consumed rapidly in active conflicts and require constant restocking., RTX CorporationIt manufactures Patriot missiles and interceptors that Middle East flare-ups put into immediate demand across allied militaries.20%
- Shipping disruptions in contested waters force cargoes onto longer routes and spike the per-day cost to move oil by sea. · Scorpio TankersIt transports refined products on longer, costlier routes when disruption forces rerouting away from normal shipping lanes., Frontline plcIt operates one of the largest crude tanker fleets and earns higher per-day rates when shipping through contested waters becomes riskier., International SeawaysIt owns both crude and product tankers, so it captures rate spikes across multiple markets when chaos disrupts shipping lanes., Teekay TankersIt operates mid-size tankers that gain incremental business when larger vessels get rerouted around dangerous waters or priced out of the trade., DHT HoldingsIt operates only supertankers on the most vulnerable crude routes through chokepoints, making it the purest play on very large tanker rate spikes.20%
- Supply threats from Middle East escalation push crude prices higher and trigger urgent drilling campaigns that boost service firm revenues. · HalliburtonIt supplies equipment and services to producers who rush to increase output after a Middle East disruption lifts crude prices., SLBIt is the largest international oil services firm with deep Middle East exposure, so supply scares that spur drilling land in its order book., Baker HughesIt sells drilling and production equipment that operators order urgently when supply disruptions and rising crude prices justify expansion., Occidental PetroleumIt produces oil in the US, so higher crude prices from Middle East supply shocks flow quickly into earnings without transportation delays.18%
- Physical precious metals provide ballast if the chaos scenario plays out as panic and market stress rather than commodity rallies. · SPDR Gold SharesIt holds physical gold and anchors the take by rising in panic scenarios, providing stability when other positions whipsaw., iShares Silver TrustSilver tends to lag gold early in fear moves and then rally harder later as demand broadens beyond traditional safe-haven buying.10%
- Cash10%